Afghanistan is expected to hold a runoff election (WSJ) for the presidency after the United Nations-backed Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) completed its audit of votes from the August election round on Thursday. Afghanistan's election commission will now subtract the votes that were disqualified by the ECC.
The results, which are expected this weekend, could reject enough votes to jeopardize the needed majority for President Hamid Karzai to avoid a runoff. The Washington Post reports that the ECC tally has reduced Karzai's portion of the vote to about 47 percent, which would trigger a runoff between him and his closest challenger Abdullah Abdullah. Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States Said Tayeb Jawad said he expected a runoff, at a meeting at the U.S. Institute of Peace on Thursday in Washington.
Analysis
The Wall Street Journal says either an outright Karzai victory or a runoff will prove difficult, since a Karzai victory could spawn protests and undermine the legitimacy of the Karzai government to the Afghan public. Proving the legitimacy of runoff results and preventing fraud in a second round of voting would also be a major challenge.
The Washington Post says the election committee findings will likely prolong the Obama administration's ongoing debate over its war strategy in Afghanistan, especially if a second round of voting is delayed because of the possibility of low turnout due to harsh winter conditions.
The New York Times reports that President Obama's advisers have been split on whether to announce troop deployments without knowing who would be in charge of the government or wait until the political situation is clearer. The prospect of a power-sharing agreement between Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah further complicates the U.S. decision.
Background
CFR's Stephen Biddle testifies before the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services on options before the U.S. in Afghanistan.
An interview with CFR's Bruce Riedel explores the need for quick action by the Obama administration in Afghanistan, as the Taliban and al-Qaeda gain strength.
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