Council on Foreign Relations

-Six-hundred UN staff relocated from Afghanistan.
-Israel alleges Syria-Iran arms trade on seized ship.
-International Criminal Court to investigate Kenya's post-election violence.
-Carmaker GM's Opel to cut ten thousand jobs.

The United Nations says it will pull (BBC) roughly half its international staff out of Afghanistan after a Taliban raid on a private guesthouse in Kabul left five UN workers dead last week. The United Nations said the relocation of six-hundred staff members would not affect its aid delivery work, which is done by local Afghan staff. The move came after the United Nations announced it would halt its long-term development work in northwestern Pakistan due to security concerns. The head of the UN's Afghanistan mission, Kai Eide, said the temporary staff relocation was not an indication of the United Nations pulling out of the country or evacuating.

Eide issued a strong warning (NYT) to Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government, saying it must reform its political system and election oversight procedures.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon says it expects to request more emergency funding (NYT) for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on top of the $130 billion U.S. Congress authorized for the wars last month.

Analysis

The Wall Street Journal reports that the staff relocation shows the extent to which security has deteriorated and raises questions about the international body's future role in the region.

Background

In a Financial Times op-ed, CFR's Charles Kupchan and Steven Simon say the U.S. military's plan to pursue counterinsurgency in the Afghan countryside is "a bridge too far," and that Afghanistan policy should focus on establishing control in strategic locations.

In a CFR interview, U.S. Major General Richard Formica says that as the Obama administration assesses U.S. troop numbers in Afghanistan, the White House should also double the size of the Afghan army and police.

Syria has denied (al-Jazeera) Israeli allegations that weapons on a seized cargo ship were headed for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Israeli officials said a document was found on board showing that the arms shipment came from Iran.

Clinton Mideast Trip: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has dismissed criticism (WSJ) of her diplomatic efforts during a weeklong trip to the Middle East, saying she made progress on brokering Arab-Israeli peace and promoting stronger U.S. ties with the region.

At least two suspected militants have been killed (BBC) by a U.S. drone attack in Pakistan's North Waziristan province, amid criticism that drone attacks fuel support for militants and kill civilians.

A CFR Backgrounder discusses Pakistan's new generation of terrorists.

According to a new Wall Street Journal poll, economists expect (WSJ) China's robust economic growth to slow as the effect of the country's massive economic stimulus efforts wear off. Economists polled estimate that China's gross domestic product growth will moderate to 8 to 9 percent into 2010 from its peak of roughly15 percent this mid-year.

Australia: Refugee advocates and Australia's human rights commission are comparing (NYT) Australia's $370 million refugee detention center on Christmas Island, roughly 1,000 one thousand miles from the Australian mainland, to Guantanamo Bay, because it is remote and jail-like. The government opened the barbed wire-enclosed facility this year to contain the influx of refugees from Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced that the ICC will begin investigations (BBC) into the 2007 post-election violence in Kenya that left 1,300 dead. Moreno-Ocampo is charged with prosecuting those responsible for alleged crimes against humanity.

Zimbabwe: South African leaders meet Thursday in Maputo, Mozambique to help resolve (AFP) the political crisis between Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. Mugabe and Tsvangirai agreed to form a now-stalled unity government in February after violence over disputed elections last year.

U.S. officials say the country is facing a severe shortage (NYT) of seasonal flu vaccine and swine flu vaccine due to increased demand for flu shots in light of the global swine flu pandemic. In New York, the shortage is so severe that health officials have instructed doctors to stop giving seasonal vaccines to healthy adults under age sixty-five.

In a CFR interview, expert David Fedson says constraints loom for the flu vaccine.

Brazil: Brazilian economic officials say they fear exuberant investors may create an asset bubble (MercoPress) and that the Brazilian real needs to weaken as much as 19 percent against the dollar to ensure steady economic growth. Brazil's currency and stock market have both experienced especially strong rallies this year.

U.S. automaker General Motors says it will cut ten thousand(Deutsche Welle) jobs as part of its planned restructuring of European carmaker Opel. The decision follows GM's announcement that it will not complete a deal to sell Opel to Canadian car-parts manufacturer Magna.

EU: The European Union has asked the World Trade Organization to rule on a trade dispute (EUObserver) with China, claiming Chinese export subsidies and quotas distort competition and increase global prices. The EU announcement follows similar decisions by the United States and Mexico, and may add tension to the EU-China summit scheduled for later this month.

In a new Carnegie Endowment paper, Pierre Goldschmidt discusses the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), arguing that the NPT should be fully implemented and enforced rather than changed or replaced.