Council on Foreign Relations Global Economics Monthly
Issue 3 | August 2013

Global Economics Monthly

Growth and Reform in China

Robert Kahn, Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics

If you are an English football fan, you may have noticed an odd occurrence this preseason: the big teams are all touring in Asia. Booming shirt sales and rising viewership apparently are sufficient evidence that the Asian consumer is the future. Rebalancing is here.

For a more nuanced assessment of China's rebalancing and future growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) annual review of the Chinese economy is worthwhile reading. It raises several questions about growth and reform, the tradeoffs between the two, and the financial pressures ahead, which the news coverage failed to notice. Read the full Monthly Report

Read more »

Looking Ahead: Kahn's take on the news on the horizon

Fiscal Cliff Returns

History suggests a deal will be reached, but the showdown over government funding and the debt limit is likely to be messier than anticipated.

Argentina Debt Ruling

A court ruling, expected soon, is likely to be negative for the government.

Greek Financing Gap Soars

The IMF estimates an 11 billion euro gap, ensuring a showdown post German elections.

From the Macro and Markets Blog

Europe's December Surprise?

Robert Kahn

While Europeans suffer from adjustment fatigue, European leaders are gearing up for a potential December meeting for a "move toward more Europe." The period of financial market calm may be coming to an end. Read more »

The IMF's Outlook: Less Growth, Inadequate Policies

Robert Kahn

The IMF has once again revised downward its outlook on Europe, but forecasts a return to growth next year. Here are the highlights. Read more »

Greece and the Troika: Summer Break

Robert Kahn

The Greek government has reached agreement with the Troika for 8.1 billion euros to put its program back on track. However, my fear is that flaws in relief programs are being papered over in hopes of easier times after German elections. Read more »

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