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| Author: | Sharon Otterman |
|---|
December 31, 2004
Iraqi Shiites--some 60 percent of Iraq's population--have never held political power and see the January 30 election as a way to attain the dominant voice in the new government. To ensure their voting power is not diluted, the leading Shiite political parties have agreed to join forces in a single electoral slate of candidates. The list, called the United Iraqi Alliance, is dominated by powerful religious Shiite groups: the Islamic Da'wa Party and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).
The country's most influential figure: the senior Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Sistani issued a fatwa commanding his millions of followers to cast ballots and is running a massive get-out-the-vote effort through mosques and shrines. His devotees will most likely support the United Iraqi Alliance, which could result in a Shiite electoral landslide. "Everyone is saying the Sistani list is going to be the clock-cleaner in this election. No other list is even going to come close," says Kenneth Katzman, senior Middle East analyst at the Congressional Research Service, the nonpartisan research arm of Congress.
A list of candidates. The rules of the January vote to elect a 275-member transitional National Assembly requires that, instead of voting for legislators to represent particular local districts--as in the U.S. voting system--all Iraqis will choose from a single national ballot. The ballot will contain various lists, or slates, of candidates. Each voter will choose one slate, and each slate will receive National Assembly seats according to the percentage of the nationwide vote it wins. Candidates will be seated according to their position on the list, with those at the top seated first.
No. The Sistani slate includes some independent Kurds, Sunnis, and other minority groups in an apparent attempt to give it the broadest possible appeal to Iraqi voters. But the list is dominated by Shiites, who make up at least two-thirds of the candidates, press reports say. The two main Kurdish parties--the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan--have created a separate slate and are expected to win the majority of the Kurdish vote. The raging insurgency in Sunni Muslim areas, meanwhile, has raised concerns that Sunni Arabs will not turn out to vote on Election Day. The Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni religious party, registered a 275-member candidate list December 9, but announced December 27 its withdrawal from the election for security reasons. Dozens of Sunni leaders have called for a six-month postponement of the election, but the U.S. and Iraqi governments are insisting it take place on time. Iraq's population is approximately 15 percent to 20 percent Kurdish and 20 percent Sunni Arab.
The 228-member slate was submitted to the Independent Iraqi Election Commission on December 9, but most of the names of the candidates on the list remained secret. Its main participants are:
Apparently not. Despite lengthy negotiations, Sadr--the youthful, anti-occupation cleric whose militia battled U.S. forces in Baghdad, Najaf, and other southern cities in April and August--did not create a political party or register as part of the Shiite coalition. "We have not participated in this list and we are still suspending our participation in the elections. We have been subjected to a campaign of suppression, and the arrests against Sadr's followers are continuing," said Ali Shemeism, an aide to Sadr, according to the British newspaper, The Independent. A letter written by Sadr was read December 10 in a Baghdad mosque urged followers not to participate in the vote, because "the elections aim to separate the Iraqi from his religion." But some of the list's organizers--such as former nuclear scientist Hussein al-Shahstrani, reportedly No. 7 on the list--say that Sadr is supporting the alliance. Adding to the confusion, some INC representatives say Sadr supporters have joined the list as independents.
About one-third of the total seats are reportedly allotted to Kurds, Sunnis, and Turkmen, including:
Every third candidate on every slate is a woman, as mandated by the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL), or interim constitution, that was approved in March 2003 by the now-defunct Iraqi Governing Council and U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer III. Women will also be permitted to vote.
Among them:
It's still unclear. The Shiite majority, Allawi, and the Independent Electoral Commission support an on-time vote. The U.S. government also favors moving forward as scheduled. However, a number of hurdles could cause a delay:
More than 220 parties and individuals, Fischer says. The groups span Iraq's political landscape: Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, Turkmen, Assyrian-Chaldean, and communist. The Baath Party of Saddam Hussein is banned from participating in the election, as are candidates who held high rank in it.
Voters are to choose candidates for three types of assemblies:
Its first act will be to choose a president and two deputy presidents from among its own members. This so-called presidency council will also appoint a prime minister and other government ministers. The National Assembly will be responsible for drafting a constitution by August 15, 2005. According to the tight timetable laid out in the TAL, Iraqis will vote in a referendum on the constitution by October 15, 2005. If they approve it, elections for a permanent government will be held in December 2005. If they reject it, the National Assembly will be dissolved and an election held for a new transitional assembly that would try again to write a constitution.
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