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The International Crisis Group examines the Bahrainian protests and their impact on regional and global politics. The report concludes that Bahrain’s crackdown and Saudi Arabia’s 14 March military intervention could turn a mass movement for democratic reform into an armed conflict while regionalising a genuinely internal political struggle.
Bahrain, with a population of almost a million and a quarter in 2010, is the smallest of the nations that comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and its society is the most complex and stratified among the Gulf states. Just under half the population are Bahraini nationals; the rest are non-Bahraini residents, the vast majority (mostly male) Asian migrant workers. Bahrain experienced rapid population growth over the past decade, particularly among its foreign workforce – indeed, in 2001 its population stood at around 650,000. On an island with limited space and natural resources, such growth put enormous strain on the native population and workforce.
As discussed below, many Shiites are convinced that this population rise is partly due to the naturalisation of mainly Sunni foreigners – and thus at their expense. While a breakdown by religious sects is not officially available, it is commonly believed in Bahrain that 70 per cent of the population is Shiite and 30 per cent Sunni; however, this balance may have shifted as a result of the regime's naturalisation policy. With its majority-Shiite population, liberal social norms, long history of political opposition and relatively small income deriving from natural resources. Bahrain stands out as a relative exception among GCC countries. Unlike most other Gulf ruling families, but like the Al-Saud in neighbouring Saudi Arabia, its leadership acquired authority through tribal alliances and conquest. Assisted by tribal allies originally from central Arabia, the Al-Khalifa invaded Bahrain from Qatar in the eighteenth century, overthrew its Persian administration
and have ruled the country ever since. Just below the Al-Khalifa and their Sunni tribal allies on the socio-political ladder are other Sunni Arab families of tribal origin and then the hawala, families that migrated to Bahrain over the last century or more from the Iranian coast but claim Sunni and Arab origins. The Al-Baharina, indigenous Shiite Arabs, constitute the fifth and largest tier, with Persians – both Sunni and Shiite – at the bottom of the social and political hierarchy. This is not to say that there is no Shiite elite or that all Shiites support the protesters; some Shiite families have become very wealthy and are among the ruling family's allies, such as the Al-Jishi, Al-Arrayed and others.
