home > the cfr think tank > experts > roger m. kubarych
Henry Kaufman Adjunct Senior Fellow for International Economics and Finance
Contact Info:
Phone: +1-212-434-9596
E-mail: Roger_Kubarych@america.hypovereinsbank.com
Location:
New York
Media downloads:
One-page bio (PDF, 57K)
Video clip (WMV, 1.1 MB)
Video clip (MP4, 1.4 MB)
Former chief economist at the New York Stock Exchange and senior economic adviser at an international banking firm. Currently writing a book examining the American financial system and corporate scandals.
Expertise:International finance; economics.
Experience:Senior Economic Adviser, HypoVereinsbank Americas Inc. (2001-present); Managing Member and CIO, Kaufman & Kubarych Advisors LLC (1997-99); General Manager, Henry Kaufman & Company Inc. (1988-97); Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, New York Stock Exchange (1986-88); Vice President and Chief Economist, The Conference Board (1985-86); Senior Vice President and Deputy Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1972-85); Special Assistant to the Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs, U.S. Department of the Treasury (1978-79).
Selected Publications:“What 2006 Will Be Like,” Nikkei (2005); “Katrina: A Devastating Storm Now a Source of Economic Uncertainty,” Market Eye on Nikkei Financial Daily (2005); “How Oil Shocks Affect Markets,” International Economy (Summer 2005); Foreign Exchange Markets in the United States (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1978).
Current Research Projects
Past Research Projects
September 17, 2008
Transcript
In a conference call, experts debate what the financial crisis means for the functionality of the U.S. investment banking model.
See more in United States, International Finance
September, 2008
Op-Ed
Nikkei Financial Daily
In this Nikkei article, Roger Kubarych discusses the potential effects of the financial meltdown on the 'real' economy. He argues that there are powerful forces already at work that will suppress business activity.
See more in United States, Economics
September 18, 2008
Audio
Listen to CFR experts discuss the financial crisis and its global implications.
See more in Economics, Business & Foreign Policy, Geoeconomics
September 9, 2008
Interview
Four CFR experts discuss the U.S. Treasury's takeover of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, what the move means for financial markets, and what risks remain.
See more in United States, International Finance
June 30, 2008
Op-Ed
Nikkei Financial Daily
Despite the extraordinary financial crisis, with big banks recording huge losses and tightening their lending standards, the US economy has continued to expand. In this Nikkei article, Roger Kubarych argues that although it is by no means certain that recession can be avoided over the next year, it would be wrong to exaggerate the downside risks to the US economy.
See more in Economics
April 21, 2008
Op-Ed
Nikkei Financial Daily
In this Nikkei article, Roger Kubarych outlines the lessons learned in the past few weeks that will be of lasting importance to global investors. He finds that "too complex to fail" is the prevailing U.S. economic doctrine—with the Bear Stearns bail-out as case in point. Kubarych also argues that banks are capitalists until they need government hand-outs but will revert to type once the crisis fades.
See more in United States, Geoeconomics
April 8, 2008
Op-Ed
Financial World
Economics wasn’t supposed to be the central theme of this year’s campaign, yet the high probability that the U.S. economy will either be in or just emerging from a mild recession on election day has brought economic issues to the forefront of the race. In this Financial World article, Roger Kubarych looks at the candidates stances on taxes, healthcare, trade, and the housing and associated credit markets. He argues that, in the end, it’s not “the economy, stupid” but “the economy, naturally.”
See more in U.S. Election 2008
February 28, 2008
Testimony
Roger Kubarych finds that veterans, like many Americans, have been adversely affected by the subprime mortgage crisis and the broadening financial turbulence that developed in its wake.
See more in Economics, Congress
February 13, 2008
Op-Ed
Nikkei Financial Daily
Three developments have altered the US economic and financial climate this year - a distinct tightening of credit terms, a sudden slide in confidence, and emerging signs that the US labor market is softening – and they have been powerful enough to compel an almost unprecedented policy response by both the Federal Reserve and the US Government. Roger Kubarych argues that the monetary policy easing and fiscal stimulus will work, albeit slowly, but the effects on financial markets are less clear.
See more in United States, Economics
December 17, 2007
Interview
CFR's Roger Kubarych says a new plan could boost banks' confidence about reserve requirements, but adds that other problems loom.
See more in United States, Economics
September 27, 2007
Op-Ed
Nikkei Financial Daily
Thousands of US homeowners who had financed their houses through what have come to be known as subprime mortgages stopped making their monthly payments. Those delinquencies, now about 15% of the total, set off a chain reaction that touched off one of the worst financial nightmares in years. Roger Kubarych offers some lessons from the subprime mortgage crisis, as well as prospects for the future.
See more in Economics
August 6, 2007
Op-Ed
Nikkei Financial Daily
The current economic and financial situation in the United States amounts to a classic “happy-sad” story—not unlike the seventh Harry Potter book. Despite an overall positive economic scene, the slumping housing market and sky-high gasoline prices have affected public opinion on the economy and the underlying issue of globalization. Roger Kubarych argues that these economic concerns will shape the upcoming presidential campaigns, and globalization may turn out to be the evil “Voldemort” of the tale.
See more in United States, Economics
May 2, 2007
Article
Market Eye on Nikkei Financial
Robert Kubarych explains why U.S. businesses are making record profits this year, while spending less on capital goods.
See more in United States, Economics
February 28, 2007
Interview
CFR's Roger Kubarych says the plunge in global markets could have a restraining effect on the flow of credit in the U.S., China, and elsewhere.
December 14, 2006
Op-Ed
Market Eye on Nikkei Financial
See more in United States, Economics
October 4, 2006
Op-Ed
Market Eye on Nikkei Financial
See more in United States, Elections, Economics, Congress
July 17, 2006
Op-Ed
Council on Foreign Relations
See more in United States, Economics
February 22, 2006
Op-Ed
Market Eye on Nikkei Financial
See more in United States, Economics
December 1, 2005
Op-Ed
Market Eye on Nikkei Financial
See more in United States, Economic Development
In The Closing of the American Border, Edward Alden goes behind the scenes to tell the story of the Bush administration’s struggle to balance security and openness in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
In Termites in the Trading System, Jagdish Bhagwati reveals how the rapid spread of preferential trade agreements endangers the world trading system.
America Between the Wars explores how the decisions and debates of the years between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Twin Towers shaped the events, arguments, and politics of the world we live in today.
Complete list of CFR Books.
In this report, CFR Senior Fellow Michael A. Levi analyzes the potential use of deterrence in preventing terrorist groups from acquiring nuclear weapons and recommends a new approach to U.S. declaratory policy, as well as ways to improve U.S. capabilities to determine the sources of terrorist attacks.
In this report, Bruce W. MacDonald illuminates the strategic landscape of military space competition between the United States and China and highlights the dangers and opportunities the United States confronts in space.
Complete list of Council Special Reports.
For more information on the David Rockefeller Studies Program, contact:
Gary Samore
Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair
+1.212.434.9627
gsamore@cfr.org
Sebastian Mallaby
Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for
Geoeconomic Studies, Deputy Director of Studies, and Paul A. Volcker Senior
Fellow for International Economics
smallaby@cfr.org
Janine Hill
Deputy Director of Studies Administration
+1.212.434.9753
jhill@cfr.org
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
