Council on Foreign Relations

There are some notable differences between the 2013 and 2012 PPS results. Last year, an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Syria was judged a Tier II (i.e., mid-level) preventive priority for the United States. This year, the intensification of Syria's civil war, including possible limited intervention, is considered not only a "high impact" threat but also "likely" to occur, making it not only a Tier I contingency but also the highest-ranked priority on the survey. The possibility of nonstate actors-militia groups or terrorist organizations—acquiring biological or chemical weapons from Syria's stockpiles also emerged this year as a Tier I concern, reflecting recent media reports and official U.S. warnings.

Many of last year's Tier I contingencies remained high preventive priorities. These include the possibility of a military incident involving the United States or one of its allies and China over various territorial disputes in East Asia, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or treaty ally, a highly disruptive cyberattack, intensification of the Iranian nuclear crisis, and severe instability in Pakistan. All were judged to be "plausible" contingencies with the potential of having a "high impact." With coalition forces drawing down in Afghanistan, a major erosion of security in the country was also placed in Tier I since it was seen as having a "moderate impact" and "likely" to occur.

Not all Tier I contingencies from last year's PPS remained in place, however. The possibility of a significant increase in drug-related conflict in Mexico dropped to Tier II, most likely in response to promising reports of abating violence there. Pyongyang's recent missile launch notwithstanding, a severe North Korean crisis now also has a Tier II ranking. At the same time, potential instability in Saudi Arabia had a Tier I ranking on the 2012 PPS in the wake of the Arab Awakening turmoil but has fallen to Tier III this year. This can be attributed to the absence of significant popular unrest in Saudi Arabia and a perceived diminishing U.S. dependence on Persian Gulf energy supplies.

Many of last year's Tier II contingencies stayed in place-notably those relating to Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and countries with competing claims to the South China Sea. The possibility of Lebanon being destabilized by the conflict in neighboring Syria not surprisingly emerged as a new concern. Jordan is also now considered more vulnerable to popular political unrest. Meanwhile, three African contingencies were elevated from Tier III to Tier II priorities: increased political instability in Nigeria, deepening violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the potential emergence of Libya as a terrorist safe haven.

Many of the Tier III contingencies this year are familiar from the 2012 survey. These include continuing friction between Sudan and South Sudan, military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the possibility of violence around the 2013 presidential election in Kenya, and unrest in Zimbabwe, also related to planned elections or the possible death of Robert Mugabe. The potential for Mali to further deteriorate as a result of a failed intervention, growing instability in Sudan, and renewed unrest in the Kurdish-dominated regions of Turkey and the Middle East emerged as new Tier III concerns.

Since the survey was limited to thirty contingencies, respondents had the opportunity to add other potential crises that they thought warranted attention. Those worthy of mention include the outbreak of a third Palestinian intifada, a widespread popular unrest in China, escalation of a U.S.-Iran naval clash in the Persian Gulf, a Sino-Indian border crisis, onset of elections-related instability and violence in Ethiopia, unrest in Cuba following the death of Fidel Castro and/or incapacitation of Raul Castro, and widespread political unrest in Venezuela triggered by the death or incapacitation of Hugo Chavez.