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Publisher A CFR–Saban Center at Brookings Book
Release Date December 2008
256 pages
ISBN 978-0-8157-3869-5
$24.95
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Contents
Chapter 1
A Time for Diplomatic Renewal: Toward a New U.S. Strategy in the Middle East
Richard N. Haass • Martin Indyk
The forty-fourth president will face a series of critical, complex, and interrelated challenges in the Middle East that will demand his immediate attention: an Iran apparently intent on approaching or crossing the nuclear threshold as quickly as possible; a fragile situation in Iraq that is straining the U.S. military; weak governments in Lebanon and Palestine under challenge from stronger Hezbollah and Hamas militant organizations; a faltering Israeli-Palestinian peace process; and American influence diluted by a severely damaged reputation. The president will need to initiate multiple policies to address all these challenges but will quickly discover that time is working against him.
Chapter 2
The Evolution of Iraq Strategy
Stephen Biddle • Michael E. O’Hanlon • Kenneth M. Pollack
Recent trends suggest that the United States may be able to reduce significantly its forces in Iraq fairly soon, premised not on the certainty of defeat, but on the likelihood of some measure of success. The past eighteen to twenty four months have seen a remarkable series of positive developments in Iraq that offer hope that the United States may be able to ensure stability in Iraq while redeploying—gradually—large numbers of American forces sooner rather than later.
Chapter 3
Pathway to Coexistence: A New U.S. Policy toward Iran
Suzanne Maloney • Ray Takeyh
The Obama administration may be tempted to take the easy way out by offering merely new rhetoric and modest refinements to the carrot-and-stick approach that has failed its five predecessors. This would be a mistake. Today, to deal effectively with a rising Iran, the United States must embark on a far deeper reevaluation of its strategy and launch a comprehensive diplomatic initiative to attempt to engage its most enduring Middle Eastern foe.
Chapter 4
Managing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East
Bruce Riedel • Gary Samore
Iran appears to be two to three years away from building an enrichment facility capable of producing sufficient weapons-grade uranium quickly enough to support a credible nuclear weapons option. As a consequence, the Obama administration will likely have some breathing space to develop a new diplomatic approach to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Part of this new approach should involve direct and unconditional talks between the United States and Iran on a range of bilateral issues, as well as formal nuclear negotiations between Iran and the EU-3 plus 3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, plus China, Russia, and the United States).
Chapter 5
Addressing the Arab-Israeli Conflict
Steven A. Cook • Shibley Telhami
After seven years on the back burner of American foreign policy, Arab-Israeli peacemaking needs to become a priority for the new president. Recent trends in Israel and the Palestinian territories have created a situation in which the option of a two-state solution may soon no longer be possible. Failure to forge an agreement will present serious complications for other American policies in the Middle East because the Arab-Israeli conflict remains central not only to Israel and its neighbors but also to the way most Arabs view the United States.
Chapter 6
Economic and Political Development in the Middle East: Managing Change, Building a New Kind of Partnership
Isobel Coleman • Tamara Cofman Wittes
The United States no longer faces a choice between supporting democratization and economic liberalization or protecting a mythic status quo. The region is already in the midst of transition. America has a clear stake in helping its key Arab partners, notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with political and economic reform.
Chapter 7
Counterterrorism and U.S. Policy toward the Middle East
Daniel Byman • Steven Simon
President Obama should make counterterrorism an integral part of his approach to the Middle East but not the only driver of his regional policy. Counterterrorism, therefore, should be seen as a significant policy concern but weighed among many interests.
Overview
The next U.S. president will need to pursue a new strategic framework for advancing American interests in the Middle East. The mounting challenges include sectarian conflict in Iraq, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, failing Palestinian and Lebanese governments, a dormant peace process, and the ongoing war against terror. Compounding these challenges is a growing hostility toward U.S. involvement in the Middle East. The old policy paradigms, whether President George W. Bush’s model of regime change and democratization or President Bill Clinton’s model of peacemaking and containment, will no longer suit the likely circumstances confronting the next administration in the Middle East.
“Thoughtful ... a very useful and readable introduction to the thinking behind the coming shift.”
—New York Times Book Review
In Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President, experts from the Council on Foreign Relations and the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution propose a new, nonpartisan strategy drawing on the lessons of past failures to address both the short-term and long-term challenges to U.S. interests. Following an overview chapter by Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Martin Indyk, director of the Saban Center, individual chapters address the Arab-Israeli conflict, counterterrorism, Iran, Iraq, political and economic development, and nuclear proliferation. Specific policy recommendations stem from in-depth research and extensive dialogue with individuals in government, media, academia, and the private sector throughout the region.
Restoring the Balance is the final product of an eighteen-month Council on Foreign Relations–Saban Center at Brookings project. This effort involved fifteen of the institutions’ senior Middle East experts, who joined together for the first time to conduct in-depth research, travel to the region, and hold interviews with its leaders in order to develop a series of policy recommendations for President-elect Barack Obama. The teams met on three occasions with a board of advisers, a group of former government officials and leaders in the public and private sectors who critiqued drafts of the papers but were not asked to endorse the views presented.
