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The Ever-Emerging Markets

Why Economic Forecasts Fail

Author: Ruchir Sharma
January/February 2014
Foreign Affairs

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In the middle of the last decade, the average growth rate in emerging markets hit over seven percent a year for the first time ever, and forecasters raced to hype the implications. China would soon surpass the United States as an economic power, they said, and India, with its vast population, or Vietnam, with its own spin on authoritarian capitalism, would be the next China.

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