Daniel Markey is adjunct senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he specializes in security and governance issues in South Asia. He is the author of a book on the future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad (Cambridge University Press, October 2013). In 2015, Dr. Markey was appointed as Senior Research Professor in International Relations and Academic Director of the new Global Policy Master of Arts Program at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
From 2003 to 2007, Dr. Markey held the South Asia portfolio on the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State. Prior to government service, he taught in the Department of Politics at Princeton University, where he served as executive director of Princeton's Research Program in International Security. Earlier, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard's Olin Institute for Strategic Studies.
Dr. Markey is the author of numerous publications, including the January 2014 CFR Special Report, Reorienting U.S. Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia; the February 2013 CFR Policy Innovation Memorandum, Support Process Over Policy in Pakistan; the September 2011 CFR Asia Security Memorandum, Pakistan Contingencies; the May 2011 CFR Policy Innovation Memorandum, Next Steps for Pakistan Strategy; the January 2010 CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum, Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation; and a chapter of the Random House e-book, Beyond bin Laden: America and the Future of Terror. He served as project director of the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Dr. Markey's commentary has been featured widely, including in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and Christian Science Monitor. He has appeared on PBS, CNN, BBC, NPR, CBS, ABC, and C-SPAN.
Dr. Markey earned a bachelor's degree in international studies from The Johns Hopkins University and a doctorate in politics from Princeton University. He has been awarded grants from the Smith Richardson and MacArthur foundations to support his research.
The Future of U.S.-Pakistan Relations
Pakistan's internal troubles already threaten U.S. security and international peace, and Pakistan's rapidly growing population, nuclear arsenal, and relationships with China and India will continue to force it onto the United States' geostrategic map in new and important ways over the coming decades. Most immediately, the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan is drawing down and the nature of the relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan is likely to shift as a consequence. As I argued in my January 2014 Council Special Report, Reorienting U.S. Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia, any U.S. strategy for the rest of Asia that does not include Pakistan's role is incomplete, and a strategy for Pakistan that only considers its role in the context of Afghanistan is shortsighted. In articles, op-eds, and my recent book, No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad, I assess the U.S. relationship with Pakistan and recommend how Washington's policymakers should craft more effective policies for the future. I also convene a South Asia Roundtable Series to address similar topics with U.S. government officials, academics, and private sector analysts.
The New Geopolitics of China, India, and Pakistan
The emergence of China and more recently, India, has reshaped relations and produced a broader area of economic integration in Asia. Even in southern Asia, where the strategic triangle of China, India, and Pakistan has resulted in flashpoints and suspicions, both India and China have kept their sights on increasing trade and economic growth as a security imperative for the long term. However, southern Asia's security, political, and economic foundations face stresses that could profoundly alter its evolution, usher in the return of geopolitics, and reshape political and economic relations globally. This project will explore potential flashpoints and promising areas for cooperation among China, India, and Pakistan—and identify areas where the United States can help. Over the next two years, I will explore these issues with my colleagues Alyssa Ayres and Elizabeth Economy in a roundtable series and several publications. The project will culminate in a capstone symposium and a Council report in 2016.
This project is made possible through the support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
China's "Go West" Strategy
In recent years, Beijing has signaled a new interest in the states of its western periphery by announcing plans for a "New Silk Road," "Maritime Silk Road," and a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, among other high profile initiatives. China's westward interests start with the vast energy resources of Central Asia and the Middle East, but other security and economic concerns are leading Beijing to focus greater attention westward, from Kazakhstan to Sri Lanka, Pakistan to Saudi Arabia. What are the likely consequences of China's expanded commercial, diplomatic, and strategic activity? Will China exacerbate or soothe tensions between India and Pakistan, or between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Will Afghanistan benefit from Chinese investment and enhanced diplomatic attention? Will Russia's influence in Central Asia be displaced by China's wealth and unquenchable thirst for energy? For the United States, the answers to these and other questions will determine whether China's westward march presents a geostrategic threat, a new opportunity for greater cooperation, or merely a distraction from other pressing global concerns. My research and travel will culminate with an assessment of the present state and future potential of China's "Go West" strategy and its consequences for the United States.
Although China and India have repeatedly demonstrated a mutual desire to prevent conflict, the potential for their relationship to deteriorate is ever present. A border clash, conflict with Pakistan, maritime skirmish, or crisis over Tibet could raise tensions to the point of armed confrontation. Daniel S. Markey explains how the United States can promote peaceful relations between the world's two largest countries.
See more in China; India; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Regional Security
The story of the tragic and often tormented relationship between the United States and Pakistan, and a call to prepare for the worst, aim for the best, and avoid past mistakes.
See more in Pakistan; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Regional Security
Daniel S. Markey examines Pakistan's complex role in U.S. foreign policy and advocates for a two-pronged approach that works to confront and quarantine immediate threats to regional security while simultaneously attempting to integrate Pakistan into the broader U.S. agenda in Asia.
See more in Pakistan; United States; Regional Security; Diplomacy and Statecraft
Initial U.S. successes in Afghanistan and Pakistan after 9/11 masked deeper problems that have beset Washington's effort to stabilize the "AfPak" theater, writes CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Afghanistan; United States; 9/11 Impact; Havens for Terrorism
Cuts in U.S. military aid to Pakistan only have a chance to translate into greater cooperation if they're part of a larger strategy, including a U.S. crackdown on Pakistan-linked militants in Afghanistan, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Defense Strategy
Americans and Pakistanis have good reasons for mutual mistrust, and the killing of bin Laden by U.S. troops on Pakistani soil is likely to exacerbate that rather than lead to increased cooperation, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Terrorism; Pakistan
The Afghan strategy review stresses destroying Taliban havens in Pakistan's tribal areas, but Pakistan isn't likely to take an aggressive stand without certainty that the U.S. is committed to both Afghan stability and eliminating extremists, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Wars and Warfare; Pakistan; Afghanistan; Politics and Strategy
The WikiLeaks' reports are important because they come at a time of growing public disillusionment about Afghanistan, not because they contain much new information, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Afghanistan; Intelligence
The new strategic dialogue begun by Pakistan and the United States was notable for the Pakistani delegation's move to shift discussions from U.S. counterterrorism aims to far-reaching Pakistani goals, says CFR's Daniel Markey. The Obama administration was wise to listen while making no rash promises, he says.
See more in United States; Pakistan; Politics and Strategy
Military forces have degraded the Pakistani Taliban's insurgency, but the Peshawar school attack demonstrates the limits of government control and lethality of rebel forces, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Terrorism
In staying on the sidelines, the Pakistani army may be the only party to emerge from the weeks-long political crisis unscathed, says CFR's Daniel S. Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Democratization
CFR's Daniel Markey sheds light on the two Taliban branches—the Afghan-based group that negotiated the release of a U.S. prisoner of war, and the Pakistani Taliban, which attacked the Karachi airport last weekend.
See more in Pakistan; Afghanistan; Terrorist Organizations and Networks
Can Washington and Islamabad build a new strategic relationship? CFR's Daniel Markey says John Kerry and Nawaz Sharif are off to a friendly start, but big obstacles remain on counterterror cooperation.
See more in Pakistan; Diplomacy and Statecraft
CFR's Daniel Markey examines the prospects for new talks with the Afghan Taliban, especially given improving relations between the United States and Pakistan.
See more in Afghanistan; Wars and Warfare
The U.S. drone attack that killed an al-Qaeda leader has further frayed ties and is feeding Pakistani anger, humiliation, and frustration over U.S. aims, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Afghanistan; Terrorism; Israel
The latest spate of violence in Afghanistan is unlikely to change the course of planned troop withdrawals, but should refocus efforts on bringing under control Pakistan-based militants, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Afghanistan; NATO; Military Operations
Reports that Pakistan-based militant groups may be moving to unite could help clarify U.S. talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan. But CFR's Daniel Markey calls it a tricky game, complicated by unclear U.S. intentions in the region.
See more in Pakistan; United States; Terrorist Organizations and Networks
The United States has effectively issued an ultimatum to Islamabad implying greater unilateral action against Pakistan-based extremist groups, but Washington must be prepared to act on it, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Terrorism
The FBI's arrest of Ghulam Nabi Fai on charges of acting as a Pakistani agent to lobby U.S. policymakers on Kashmir may worsen the countries' already troubled relationship, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Pakistan; Politics and Strategy
Pakistan's floods spell setbacks for the U.S. fight against extremism and its war effort in Afghanistan, says CFR's Daniel Markey. He says beyond humanitarian aid relief, Washington must focus on boosting Pakistan's economy through greater trade opportunities.
See more in Pakistan; Disasters
Pakistan's latest moves to exert influence in Afghanistan, including possible brokering of talks with militant Taliban allies, could pose difficulties for U.S. stabilization efforts, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Terrorist Organizations and Networks; Pakistan; Afghanistan
Pakistan's interest in the Afghan presidential elections lies in an outcome yielding a legitimate government that brings stability to Afghanistan, says CFR's Dan Markey.
See more in Elections; Afghanistan
Beyond the immediate pledges of support that emerged from the U.S.-Afghan-Pakistan summit, President Barack Obama should convey a long-term U.S. commitment to the region to sustain the trust of his partners, says CFR's Daniel Markey.
See more in Afghanistan; Pakistan; Counterterrorism