Daniel S. Markey is adjunct senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he specializes in security and governance issues in South Asia. He is the author of a book on the future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad (Cambridge University Press, October 2013). In 2015, Dr. Markey was appointed as Senior Research Professor in International Relations and Academic Director of the new Global Policy Master of Arts Program at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
From 2003 to 2007, Dr. Markey held the South Asia portfolio on the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State. Prior to government service, he taught in the Department of Politics at Princeton University, where he served as executive director of Princeton's Research Program in International Security. Earlier, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard's Olin Institute for Strategic Studies.
Dr. Markey is the author of numerous publications, including the January 2014 CFR Special Report, Reorienting U.S. Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia;theFebruary 2013 CFR Policy Innovation Memorandum, Support Process Over Policy in Pakistan; the September 2011 CFR Asia Security Memorandum, Pakistan Contingencies; the May 2011 CFR Policy Innovation Memorandum, Next Steps for Pakistan Strategy; the January 2010 CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum, Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation; and a chapter of the Random House e-book, Beyond bin Laden: America and the Future of Terror. He served as project director of the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Dr. Markey's commentary has been featured widely, including in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and Christian Science Monitor. He has appeared on PBS, CNN, BBC, NPR, CBS, ABC, and C-SPAN.
Dr. Markey earned a bachelor's degree in international studies from The Johns Hopkins University and a doctorate in politics from Princeton University. He has been awarded grants from the Smith Richardson and MacArthur foundations to support his research.
The Future of U.S.-Pakistan Relations
Pakistan's internal troubles already threaten U.S. security and international peace, and Pakistan's rapidly growing population, nuclear arsenal, and relationships with China and India will continue to force it onto the United States' geostrategic map in new and important ways over the coming decades. Most immediately, the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan is drawing down and the nature of the relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan is likely to shift as a consequence. As I argued in my January 2014 Council Special Report, Reorienting U.S. Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia, any U.S. strategy for the rest of Asia that does not include Pakistan's role is incomplete, and a strategy for Pakistan that only considers its role in the context of Afghanistan is shortsighted. In articles, op-eds, and my recent book, No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad, I assess the U.S. relationship with Pakistan and recommend how Washington's policymakers should craft more effective policies for the future. I also convene a South Asia Roundtable Series to address similar topics with U.S. government officials, academics, and private sector analysts.
The New Geopolitics of China, India, and Pakistan
The emergence of China and more recently, India, has reshaped relations and produced a broader area of economic integration in Asia. Even in southern Asia, where the strategic triangle of China, India, and Pakistan has resulted in flashpoints and suspicions, both India and China have kept their sights on increasing trade and economic growth as a security imperative for the long term. However, southern Asia's security, political, and economic foundations face stresses that could profoundly alter its evolution, usher in the return of geopolitics, and reshape political and economic relations globally. This project will explore potential flashpoints and promising areas for cooperation among China, India, and Pakistan—and identify areas where the United States can help. Over the next two years, I will explore these issues with my colleagues Alyssa Ayres and Elizabeth Economy in a roundtable series and several publications. The project will culminate in a capstone symposium and a Council report in 2016.
This project is made possible through the support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
China's "Go West" Strategy
In recent years, Beijing has signaled a new interest in the states of its western periphery by announcing plans for a "New Silk Road," "Maritime Silk Road," and a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, among other high profile initiatives. China's westward interests start with the vast energy resources of Central Asia and the Middle East, but other security and economic concerns are leading Beijing to focus greater attention westward, from Kazakhstan to Sri Lanka, Pakistan to Saudi Arabia. What are the likely consequences of China's expanded commercial, diplomatic, and strategic activity? Will China exacerbate or soothe tensions between India and Pakistan, or between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Will Afghanistan benefit from Chinese investment and enhanced diplomatic attention? Will Russia's influence in Central Asia be displaced by China's wealth and unquenchable thirst for energy? For the United States, the answers to these and other questions will determine whether China's westward march presents a geostrategic threat, a new opportunity for greater cooperation, or merely a distraction from other pressing global concerns. My research and travel will culminate with an assessment of the present state and future potential of China's "Go West" strategy and its consequences for the United States.
Although China and India have repeatedly demonstrated a mutual desire to prevent conflict, the potential for their relationship to deteriorate is ever present. A border clash, conflict with Pakistan, maritime skirmish, or crisis over Tibet could raise tensions to the point of armed confrontation. Daniel S. Markey explains how the United States can promote peaceful relations between the world's two largest countries.
Daniel S. Markey examines Pakistan's complex role in U.S. foreign policy and advocates for a two-pronged approach that works to confront and quarantine immediate threats to regional security while simultaneously attempting to integrate Pakistan into the broader U.S. agenda in Asia.
While in Islamabad, Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the U.S.-Pakistan strategic dialogue would be resumed in order to foster "deeper, broader and more comprehensive partnership." These fine words will need a lot of hard work to back them up. It would help if President Obama's administration also came to the table with a big new idea to re-energize its difficult relationship with Islamabad. An ambitious and forward-looking way to frame Washington's agenda with Islamabad would be to consider it within the context of Pakistan's role in the broader U.S. "rebalancing" to Asia.
Can Washington and Islamabad build a new strategic relationship? CFR's Daniel Markey says John Kerry and Nawaz Sharif are off to a friendly start, but big obstacles remain on counterterror cooperation.
The specific challenge in the post-2014 context, as NATO troops draw down from Afghanistan, is to avoid a situation in which violence and instability spike, leading U.S.-Pakistan relations to fray to the point of rupture.
Nawaz Sharif appears poised to return as Pakistan's prime minister, which would create new challenges for the country's already fractious politics and add strains to the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, writes CFR's Daniel Markey.
Asked by Jessica Brandt, from Harvard Kennedy School
The Afghan civil war of the 1990s was partly fueled by longstanding Indo-Pakistani rivalry, with different Afghan factions receiving support from different regional neighbors. The United States has a clear interest in avoiding a similar outcome as it disengages from the current war in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, promoting Indo-Pakistani dialogue on Afghanistan will not be easy.
In his testimony before the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, and the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Daniel S. Markey describes evidence of a strategic shift by Pakistan that could lead to improved cooperation with the United States.
Intervening in Pakistani elections is a losing proposition, CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey argues. If pro-American leaders win, they will be tainted by association; if their opponents win, the United States will have alienated potential partners.
The United States and Pakistan spent most of 2011 and at least half of 2012 lurching from crisis to crisis, their relationship teetering at the edge of an abyss. In recent months, however, moves by Islamabad have raised hopes in Washington that Pakistan might be navigating a "strategic shift" that would restart normal, workmanlike cooperation and, more important, would allow America to escape from its war in Afghanistan.
The U.S. designation of the Haqqani network as a foreign terrorist organization may heighten tensions with Islamabad, but was the "right decision" because it provides clarity within the U.S. government and to Pakistani authorities, says CFR's Daniel Markey
Director: Daniel S. Markey, Adjunct Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia May 2007—Present
The South Asia Roundtable Series examines the major issues facing South Asia today. On Afghanistan, speakers and participants analyze stability, reconstruction, and counterinsurgency efforts. For sessions on Pakistan, they consider many aspects of the nature of the U.S.-Pakistan partnership, ranging from counterterrorism cooperation to issues of governance. Meetings on India look at the U.S.-India relationship and the tensions, limits, and opportunities that will define the American relationship with India moving forward. Other sessions may also examine timely issues that arise in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, or Nepal.
CFR Fellows' Book Launch Series: No Exit from Pakistan--America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad
SpeakerDaniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations; Author, No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad PresiderJames M. LindsaySenior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations
October 21, 20135:30–6:00 p.m. - Cocktail Reception 6:00–6:45 p.m. - Meeting 6:45–7:15 p.m. - Cocktail Reception and Book Signing
No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship with Islamabad
SpeakerDaniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations; Author, No Exit from Pakistan PresiderJames M. LindsaySenior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations
October 15, 20135:30–6:00 p.m. - Registration 6:00–6:45 p.m. - Meeting 6:45–7:15 p.m. - Reception and Book Signing
U.S.-Pakistan Relations: The Year Past, The Year Ahead
SpeakersSteve CollPresident and CEO, New America Foundation, Robert GrenierChairman, ERG Partners, Daniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations PresiderTom GjeltenNational Security Correspondent, NPR
U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan: Report of a CFR-Sponsored Independent Task Force
PanelistsJames DobbinsDirector, International Security and Defense Policy Center, National Security Research Division, RAND Corporation; Member, Independent Task Force on U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Robert GrenierChairman, ERG Partners; Member, Independent Task Force on U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Daniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations; Director, Independent Task Force on U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan PresiderLeslie H. GelbPresident Emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations Introductory SpeakerAnya SchmemannDirector, Task Force Program, Council on Foreign Relations
U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan: Report of a CFR-Sponsored Independent Task Force
SpeakersRichard L. ArmitagePresident, Armitage International; Former Deputy Secretary of State; Task Force Co-Chair, Samuel R. BergerChair, Albright Stonebridge Group; Former National Security Adviser; Task Force Co-Chair, Daniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Task Force Project Director PresiderDavid R. IgnatiusColumnist and Associate Editor, "Washington Post"
November 12, 20108:00–8:30 a.m. - Breakfast Reception and Registration 8:30–9:30 a.m. - Meeting
SpeakersStephen D. BiddleSenior Fellow for Defense Policy, Council on Foreign Relations, Steven A. CookSenior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Daniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations PresiderGary SamoreVice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations
Continuing Challenges for U.S. Foreign Policy: Pakistan
SpeakersRobert GrenierManaging Director, Kroll, Former Director, CIA Counterterrorism Center, Daniel S. MarkeySenior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations, Nicholas SchmidleFellow, Institute of Current World Affairs PresiderJonah BlankChief Majority Policy Adviser for South Asia, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Back in the summer of 2011, the editor of Foreign Affairs journal, Gideon Rose, suggested in the pages of The New York Times that the Obama administration draws lessons from the experience of the Vietnam War and implements a "Neo-Nixonian" strategy in Afghanistan.