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Robert M. Danin

Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies

Expertise

Middle East, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan; Israeli-Palestinian affairs.

Programs

Middle East Program

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What is the worst-case scenario outcome in Syria, and how will it affect the rest of the Middle East?

Asked by David Karapetyan

Syria has been mired in deadly strife since March 2011 and the outlook for resolving what is now a full blown civil war looks increasingly dire. The worst case outcome for Syria is one whereby the country fragments and becomes a failed state in which the Damascus government no longer controls its own territory. Under such a scenario, the glue holding the country together comes unstuck.

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What effect would the fall of the Assad regime have on U.S. policy towards Syria?

Asked by Igbinosa Ojehomon, from Eastern Mediterranean University in Cyprus
Author: Robert M. Danin

The United States' policy toward a post-Assad Syria would largely depend on what political scenario results. A victory by unified rebel forces would generate a vastly different policy than a new govenrnment that includes jihadists. In the more likely event that post-Assad Syria descends into greater sectarian violence, Washington would urge regional partners like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to exert influence with those rebel groups to which they had provided arms and ammunition.

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