Conventional wisdom holds that weak and failing states are the source of the world's most pressing security threats. After all, the 9/11 attacks originated in an impoverished, war-ravaged country, and transnational crime appears to flourish in weakly governed states. However, our assumptions about the threats posed by failing states are based on anecdotal arguments, not on a systematic analysis of the connections between state failure and transnational security threats. Analyzing terrorism, transnational crime, WMDs, pandemic diseases, and energy insecurity, Stewart Patrick shows that while some global threats do emerge in fragile states, most of their weaknesses create misery only for their own citizenry. Moreover, many threats originate farther up the chain, in wealthier and more stable countries like Russia and Venezuela. Weak Links will force policymakers to rethink what they assume about state failure and transnational insecurity.
On Conversations With History, Patrick discusses the criteria for defining fragile states and for creating benchmarks for evaluating whether they pose national security threats with reference to terrorism proliferation, criminal activity, energy insecurity and infectious disease. He argues that in most cases the links are tenuous and the focus on one category obscures the challenges these states actually pose for the U.S. and the community of nations. He proposes that the United States focus on an early warning system that anticipates problem areas, identify local environments that shape harmful outcomes, engage in multilateral solutions, and de-emphasize the over reliance on military solutions.
Stewart Patrick challenges the assumption in U.S. foreign policy that weak and failing states are universally threatening to global stability, and argues that the danger is more nuanced and contingent on many factors.
"Understanding how and why states fail is not just an urgent task for policymakers but also for anyone interested in the main trends shaping the world. Weak Links is a rigorous account of a phenomenon that combines medieval-like realities with modern conditions. There is no other book like this." —Moisés Naím, author of Illicit
"The phenomenon known as fragile states is typically over-determined but poorly specified, leading to sweeping conclusions of limited policy relevance. Stewart Patrick's new book performs a critically important service by analyzing fragile states in relation to specific security threats." —Chester A. Crocker, professor of strategic studies, Georgetown University
"Weak Links takes on the conventional wisdom that there is a close connection between weak states and transnational threats like terrorism. The book demonstrates that the relationship is much more attenuated—perhaps a small comfort, since the international community's ability to fix failed states is so limited." —Francis Fukuyama, professor of international political economy, Johns Hopkins University, and author of The Origins of Political Order
"Stewart Patrick's brilliantly researched book is an overdue corrective to some of the overwrought claims about the problems posed by failing, failed, and phantom states. He shows that every state situation is different, demanding its own analysis and its own policy solution. Meticulously and impressively argued." —Gareth Evans, former foreign minister of Australia
Stewart M. Patrick is senior fellow and director of the International Institutions and Global Governance program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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