Print
Email
ShareRussia’s Nuclear Deal with Iran
As the world struggles to find a formula for dealing with suspicious nuclear developments in Iran , Russian diplomats have been holding...
Interviewee: Charles D. Ferguson
Interviewer: Lionel Beehner
May 18, 2007
Charles D. Ferguson, fellow for science and technology at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Iran “is much further along in its nuclear program than many experts were predicting.” The evidence stems from a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, which suggests that Tehran has made substantial progress in its uranium-enrichment activities. Ferguson says “there are still a lot of ifs” about Iran’s technical ability to enrich uranium. He argues that three-thousand is the “number to keep in mind”—the number of operational centrifuges necessary “to in principal [give Iran] the capability to make weapons-grade uranium within a year.”
“That’s the threshold we should try to prevent Iran from crossing,” he says, adding that Iran, which barring setback could have two-thousand centrifuges running by the start of summer, may be two-thirds of the way there.
Ferguson says Washington’s demand that Iran first suspend its enrichment activities as a precursor to direct negotiations “has been a futile effort.” Instead, he suggests a framework that emphasizes “shared responsibilities”—that is, Tehran must ensure its program is peaceful and maintain rigorous safeguards, while Washington must provide security assurances and back away from sanctions aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.
Finally, Ferguson maintains that Iran does not want to run afoul of international frameworks like the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. “Iran wants to appear to remain a responsible international player and responsible actors stay within their treaty commitments,” he says. “Iran probably wants to walk up to a latent capability to make nuclear bombs within the treaty and they don’t want to show their hand yet.”
Terms of Use: I understand that I may access this audio and/or video file solely for my personal use. Any other use of the file and its content, including display, distribution, reproduction, or alteration in any form for any purpose, whether commercial, noncommercial, educational, or promotional, is expressly prohibited without the written permission of the copyright owner, the Council on Foreign Relations. For more information, write outreach@cfr.org.
Saudi Arabia on the Edge
A leading Middle East scholar pens this "good introduction to the Saudi paradox of social change and political stability and an invaluable guide to the challenges the country faces." More
American Force
An investigation of the use of American force since the end of the Cold War. More
The Struggle for Egypt
A sweeping account of Egypt in the modern era: what Egypt is, what it stands for, and its relation to the world. More
Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East
Gause posits that, though the Arab Awakening has caused tensions in Saudi-American relations, the two countries do not face a crisis and still have significant mutual interests that should be prioritized.
Partners in Preventive Action
The authors assess the strengths and weaknesses of international institutions and provide a set of practical recommendations for how the United States can strengthen the global architecture for preventive action by partnering with those organizations.
As the world struggles to find a formula for dealing with suspicious nuclear developments in Iran , Russian diplomats have been holding...
David Albright, a longtime expert on Iran's nuclear program, says Iran will probably accumulate enough low-enriched uranium this year to...
George Perkovich, a leading expert on Iran and nuclear nonproliferation issues, says there is no question that Iran has not complied yet with...