"The Middle East is a place of struggling and thriving economies, where new classes and business elites are elbowing their way higher in the power structures of many countries, changing religious, social and political life along the way," writes Vali Nasr, former senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. It is time to look past Islamic "fundamentalism's hard-hitting rhetoric and the venom spewed by extremists" because change is coming to the Middle East through an upwardly mobile middle class of entrepreneurs, investors, professionals and consumers, he asserts in his new book, Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World. Nasr reveals that it is this rising business class, and the thriving world of Islamic finance (banking and financial services compatible with sharia regulations) that are the emerging centers of power in the Middle East; they are instrumental to tipping the scales of power away from Islamic extremism, he argues.
Currently senior adviser to Richard C. Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Nasr explains that the blending of Islamic values and economic vitality is an "important development in the Muslim world that should shape [the United States'] approach to building better relations with the region." He demonstrates that these devoutly Islamic, yet highly modern Muslims, of the "critical middle" (particularly in Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey) constitute the middle class the region has desperately needed. They are building a whole new "Muslim world economy"―as demonstrated in the rapid growth of capitalist Dubai. Their distinctive blend of Islam and capitalism is crucial to bringing lasting reform to the region, says Nasr.
If the global values of "peace, security, democracy, freedom and human rights, moderation, and religious tolerance," have not yet taken hold in Muslim lands, concludes Nasr, it is not because of the "fundamental nature of Islam," but because the "commercial class that must spearhead the process of propagating [those values] is still too small." Helping this "critical middle" grow and come to "dominate their societies is the best way of making sure those global values will take deep root as Muslim values, paving the way to democracy."
"Nasr shows how growing economies and a new business class will be more important than extremist ideologies in determining how the Middle East interacts with the world. This is a wonderful combination of historical analysis and insightful reporting." —Walter Isaacson, CEO of the Aspen Institute and author of Kissinger: A Biography
"Vali Nasr masterfully articulates his argument through comprehensive research and vivid reporting. A must read." —Senator John F. Kerry
"Vali Nasr's new paradigm about the rise of a new Muslim middle class will be embraced by a broad spectrum of experts: because it is a startling truth hiding in plain sight that Nasr brilliantly reveals and elaborates." —Robert D. Kaplan, author of Balkan Ghosts and Imperial Grunts
"With his unique credentials and bold insights, Vali Nasr has written a landmark work at a pivotal time. It's a rich and exciting read." —Robin Wright, author of Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East
"In this fascinating and timely book, Vali Nasr argues lucidly that free trade, not sanctions, is the key to a democratic awakening in the Muslim world. Forces of Fortune seems bound to be influential." —Jon Lee Anderson, author of The Fall of Baghdad
"Take American chips away from the endlessly hypocritical and fruitless diplomatic games and rhetoric, our weakest hand, and put the chips on our strength -- helping Middle Eastern and Muslim countries with economic growth. That's the way to ultimately defeat the terrorists, build the middle classes, loosen ties to Arab autocrats, and develop democracies. That's Vali Nasr's brilliant message. It's the only way to rescue U.S. foreign policy from disasters." —Leslie H. Gelb, former New York Times columnist and senior government official, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations
Vali Nasr is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University and a senior fellow of the Dubai Initiative run by the Harvard Kennedy School. He is the author of The Shia Revival, Democracy in Iran, and The Islamic Leviathan. He appears regularly on major network news shows as an expert on Middle Eastern affairs and writes for the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal. He was born in Iran and emigrated to the United States.
Rates of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low- and middle-income countries are increasing faster than in wealthier countries. The Independent Task Force outlines a plan for collective action on this growing epidemic.
The authors argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power and recommend placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Campbell evaluates the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency and recommends that the United States support Nigerian efforts to address the drivers of Boko Haram, such as poverty and corruption, and to foster stronger ties with Nigerian civil society.
Koblentz argues that the United States should work with other nuclear-armed states to manage threats to nuclear stability in the near term and establish processes for multilateral arms control efforts over the longer term.
Learn more about CFR’s mission and its work over the past year in the 2014 Annual Report. The Annual Report spotlights new initiatives, high-profile events, and authoritative scholarship from CFR experts, and includes a message from CFR President Richard N. Haass. Read and download »
Now Available: Foreign Policy Begins at Home
The biggest threat to America's security and prosperity comes not from abroad but from within, writes CFR President Richard N. Haass in his provocative new book. More