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The Iraqi government is about to make a major mistake: excluding Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr from the political process.
On April 13, the Iraqi government approved a draft law barring any political party with a militia from participating in provincial elections set for October. While Sheik al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army were not specifically mentioned in the legislation, they are the intended target. Other Iraqi parties operate militias, but they have been largely absorbed into the Iraqi army or security forces. The bill is now before the Iraqi parliament.
The consequences of trying to isolate Sheik al-Sadr and his political movement are profound: He will lash out further at the Iraqi government and U.S. troops, his supporters will completely abandon the ceasefire he imposed last August and violence will spiral out of control once again. U.S. commanders credit Sheik al-Sadr’s ceasefire with a significant drop in both attacks on U.S. forces and sectarian bloodletting. Those highly touted gains made during the surge of U.S. troops will evaporate.
In singling out the Sadrists, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not trying to restore order. He wants to eliminate a political rival. In the process, he risks escalating an intra-Shi’ite civil war in oil-rich southern Iraq. The recent fighting in Basra was the latest chapter of a conflict between Sheik al-Sadr and his main rival for dominance of the Shi’ite heartland: the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, led by a U.S. and Iranian-backed cleric, Abdulaziz al-Hakim.
