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Forming a national-unity government and raising the performance of Iraqi security forces will be the two biggest challenges facing the country’s leaders in the months ahead, experts say. Along those lines, the re-nomination of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari (LATimes) by the country’s largest Shiite bloc is not winning rave reviews. Jaafari’s first stint as prime minister was marked by indecision and divisiveness, with Sunnis particularly suspicious of him. Before he can form a government, he must still be confirmed by two-thirds of parliament. But support from the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr (NYT), who controls thirty-two seats in the new legislature, gave the nod to al-Jaafari.

If confirmed as prime minister when parliament finally meets, a crucial hurdle for Jaafari will be the allotment of important ministries like interior and defense, as this CFR Background Q&A explains. A diverse group of political factions is vying for positions in the new government.

Kenneth Pollack, a Brookings expert on the Persian Gulf, tells cfr.org’s Bernard Gwertzman that 2006 is shaping up as a “make-or-break year.” Citing a new report by his Iraq Working Group, Pollack says “if [Jaafari] doesn’t turn things around very quickly and start delivering on these basic services, which are the most important to the Iraqis, I think that you could see the Iraqis souring on reconstruction very quickly.”

Pollack also says that militias, not the insurgency, may be more likely to bring civil war to Iraq. Keeping militias—explained in this CFR Background Q&A—out of Iraq's security forces will be crucial to ensuring future stability, says Matthew Sherman, former director of policy to Iraq’s Ministry of Interior, in an interview with cfr.org's Lionel Beehner. Wesley Clark, a former Democratic presidential candidate and ex-NATO commander, told a CFR meeting last week that Iraqis may be already witnessing civil war. But Clark, who does not favor an immediate withdrawal, adds: “It could be a lot worse than it is right now.”

A new report by the International Crisis Group, which culls large amounts of communications between insurgent constituents, finds that the insurgency's foreign jihadis and Sunni nationalists are less divided than U.S. officials suggest. This CFR Background Q&A looks at the status of the insurgency, while this one examines the reported rift among the insurgency's ranks.