As violence once again threatens to overtake Lebanon, the clash of Syrian, Iranian, Israeli, and American interests provides a familiar backdrop.

A graphic presentation from the Washington Institute showing attacks in Northern Israel.

Anthony Cordesman arges that better data to measure progress in Afghanistan and Iraq are needed. He says that too many current measures of progress have little or no value, report meaningless nation-wide data, quantify the unimportant, or are more designed to “spin” immediate success than win real victory over time. The true complexities, uncertainties, and risks involved in dealing with a host of ethnic, sectarian, tribal, and regional problems are downplayed or ignored, leading to assumptions that insurgent groups are unpopular and that US, NATO, and Afghan government are assumed to have large-scale support—assumptions that may well be incorrect.

Daniel Markey, a CFR South Asia expert, says a recent trip to Pakistan revealed deep official concerns that protests against the president could spiral out of control.

Despite the death of a prominent Taliban leader, the rise in civilian casualties has strained relations between Washington and Kabul.

Compromise among Iraqi factions appears more remote, as a deadlock deepens over a draft oil law and Sunnis threaten to pull out of parliament.

Iran now says it will attend a conference on Iraqi security and has shown a willingness to negotiate on its nuclear program amid growing pressure.

Casualties among Canadian forces in Afghanistan are up, resulting in growing anti-war attitudes north of the border.

Congress voted to begin a troop drawdown from Iraq. The bill faces a presidential veto and it is unclear how long the power struggle will last.

Demands by Iraqi Kurds for greater autonomy have roiled their Turkish neighbors.

As the one-year anniversary of the Darfur peace agreement approaches, the Sudanese president agrees to a partial deployment of UN troops but many wonder if it just another diplomatic feint.

Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, sees little chance a constitutional court will resolve Ukraine’s political crisis, and points to missteps by the Ukrainian president.

Ali Allawi, former minister of finance, defense, and trade in Iraq, and CFR Senior Fellow Steve Simon discuss Iraq four years after the invasion.  Ali Allawi spoke on his recent book, The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace, and Steve Simon on his recent Council Special Report, After the Surge.

A large demonstration in Najaf may foreshadow a revival of Shiite nationalism as the troop surge has pacified Baghdad somewhat, pushing the violence to the capital’s periphery.

This report published by the Christian Science Monitor says that the Baghdad security plan under Army General David Petraeus is leading to the detention of hundreds of Iraqis. In the absence of Iraqi facilities, the US forces are building more detention facilities to hold all the detainees and bringing in more US military police to guard them.

The release of fifteen British military personnel mitigates one source of tension with Tehran, but questions remain about the chances for nuclear compromise.

In this opinion column the right-of-center journalist and military historian Max Hastings writing in the left-of-center UK newspaper The Guardian asks if there is ‘a shred of hope’ of victory in Iraq, and answers ‘no’. He says that although army general David Petraeus ‘is probably the cleverest and most imaginative general in the American army,’ and his team is exceptionally talented, it remains too late to salvage anything resembling success in Iraq because public opinion in the US no longer supports the expenditure and troop levels required.  

The standoff between Britain and Iran may affect other issues in the region, from nuclear negotiations to the security conference on Iraq.

A PDF document from the Defense and National Interest Website counting coalition and NATO Dead in Iraq and Afghanistan through April 2007.

This report from the Associated Press says the U.S. military death toll in March, the first full month of the security crackdown, was nearly twice that of the Iraqi army, which American and Iraqi officials say is taking the leading role in the latest attempt to curb violence in the capital, surrounding cities and Anbar province.