Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the south will either secede peacefully through a credible referendum process as agreed to in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) or pursue this by force if the CPA should collapse. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences in the event that it does.
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In this globalized world, countries will need to cooperate on policies that extend across borders to address issues that affect them all, including conflict prevention and peacemaking. The authors of this report assess the strengths and weaknesses of international institutions and provide a set of practical recommendations for how the United States can strengthen the global architecture for preventive action by partnering with those organizations.
See more in Conflict Prevention; United States; International Organizations and Alliances
The United States can ill afford the burden of additional foreign policy challenges, making it imperative that the U.S. government find ways to identify, delay, and avert international crises that could harm U.S. interests or even lead to military engagement. In this report, the authors provide an actionable road map for how the U.S. government should revamp its existing U.S. prevention architecture to make it more effective in dealing with potential crises abroad.
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North Korea has long been a serious concern to Washington. Now, with President Kim Jong-Il reportedly in bad health and possibly naming a successor, the United States must consider possible outcomes should the situation deteriorate and the current North Korean government collapse. This report examines the challenges that these scenarios would pose--ranging from securing Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal to providing humanitarian assistance--in the context of the interests of the United States and others in its valuable recommendations.
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This report comprehensively analyzes Ukraine's difficulties, related to both domestic conditions and foreign policy, and recommends ways for the United States to encourage Ukraine on a path of stability and integration with the West.
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This report presents a full picture of what is going on in the Horn of Africa and suggests what the United States needs to do to address the multiple challenges to stability.
See more in Conflict Prevention; Africa (sub-Saharan)
This report identifies the principal steps that the United States can take to secure the investment it has made in the western Balkans and facilitate the region's progress toward its rightful destiny within the EU. In doing so, Forgotten Intervention? lays out a straightforward and doable strategy for the United States that will pay dividends.
See more in Conflict Prevention; Kosovo
Has the world progressed since 1994 in stopping mass atrocities? Concerted efforts by states, institutions, and NGOs make them less likely, write CFR's Paul Stares and Anna Feuer.
See more in Rwanda; Global; Genocide; Conflict Prevention
Myanmar's emergence from military rule has also spawned some of the worst ethnic and religious violence in decades and fear of prolonged civil conflict, writes CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick.
See more in Burma/Myanmar; Conflict Prevention; Ethnicity, Minorities, and National Identity
New efforts by the Obama administration to prioritize the prevention of atrocities can only make a difference if authorities are able to surmount challenges ranging from bureaucratic inertia to fickle public opinion, write Andrew Miller and Paul Stares.
See more in Conflict Prevention; Genocide; Global
Hostilities in Sudan might be relieved by a deal hammered out by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, but ethnic and religious divides, resource battles, and looming southern independence remain contentious issues, says CFR's John Campbell.
See more in Sudan; South Sudan; Conflict Prevention
Russia's inaction in response to Kyrgyzstan's ethnic violence reflects a deeper problem with international cooperation, writes CFR's Stephen Sestanovich.
See more in Conflict Prevention; Kyrgyzstan; Russian Federation
The worsening political crisis in Guinea will require stronger UN involvement and greater efforts on the part of African leaders to avoid what could become a civil war and a massive humanitarian crisis, says CFR's John Campbell.
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President Obama's move to strengthen efforts to prevent genocide and mass killings deserves credit, but must be given time to work properly, says CFR's Paul Stares.
See more in Sudan; Syria; Humanitarian Intervention; Conflict Prevention
South Korea's exercises on Yeonpyeong are a response to last month's North Korean attack and growing public anger, says CFR's Scott Snyder, who urges greater China-U.S. cooperation on the Korean peninsula and strengthening South Korean defenses.
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Though overshadowed by NATO and the EU in recent years, the OSCE may offer the most palatable forum for Russia and the West to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine, says expert Richard Gowan.
See more in Ukraine; Conflict Prevention
Negotiating a Russian withdrawal from Crimea is still possible, but U.S. and Western leaders have options to strengthen Ukraine if the situation worsens, says CFR President Richard N. Haass.
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An intensifying anti-Assad stance has disrupted Turkey's pragmatic regional policy and aroused concerns at home that it is on a war footing, says expert Steven Heydemann.
See more in Turkey; Syria; Conflict Prevention
The UN General Assembly will likely address two "lightning rod" issues: ending the bloodshed in Syria and curbing Iran's nuclear development, says CFR's Stewart Patrick.
See more in Middle East and North Africa; Defense and Security; Conflict Prevention
Sudan and South Sudan appear to be on the brink of war. The United States and China must press both sides to return to the negotiating table, says CFR expert Jendayi Frazer.
See more in Sudan; Conflict Prevention; South Sudan