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Conflict in the Horn of Africa is escalating rapidly as power struggles within Somalia are exacerbated by military support that both Ethiopia and Eritrea give to the opposing parties there. Ethiopia backs the weak interim government; Eritrea sponsors the Islamic militants fighting to overthrow it. Because the United States has accused Somalia of harboring al-Qaeda suspects, “the Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict increases the opportunities for terrorist infiltration of the Horn and East Africa and for ignition of a larger regional conflict,” warns a new Council Special Report.
A pair of Somalia experts, Terrence Lyons and Sadia Ali Aden, discuss U.S. policy options for the war-torn nation on Africa's Horn.
Micah Zenko highlights the findings of the Center for Preventive Action’s 2016 Preventive Priorities Survey, which identifies plausible sources of conflict or instability and ranks them based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming calendar year and their potential impact on U.S. interests.
Steven Cook argues that Cairo is no longer a mediator between Israel and Palestine, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is only looking out for Egypt amidst the latest rounds of violence.
Recent media coverage has revealed that some officials in Japan see the U.S. response in Crimea as a litmus test for its willingness to intervene in a Senkaku contingency.
"Conflict prevention's placement as a policy goal deep within the National Security Strategy (NSS), and the lack of specificity about how this is pursued, says a lot about how the U.S. government thinks about preventing future wars," Micah Zenko writes. Heprovides a series of recommendations to address under-prioritization and under-development of conflict prevention in U.S. policies and strategies.
Thanks to the rift between Turkey and Israel, Ankara's days as a power broker in the Arab-Israeli conflict are over, says Steven A. Cook.
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon says the hotel bombing in Kabul raises the stakes for an already fragile peace process in Afghanistan.
Micah Zenko and Rebecca R. Friedman argue, "... a fully funded foreign assistance budget is essential to prevent the political instability and violent conflict that harms American security."
Mohamad Bazzi says that without a strong central state that can defend itself, Hizbollah remains the most powerful force in Lebanon.
Micah Zenko asks, "What if Americans were the ones without nuclear weapons, and a well-stocked Iran was insisting that the United States couldn't have such weapons?"
To ensure global stability, Richard N. Haass warns, "... we should be careful not to learn the wrong lesson and rule out helping weak states."
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Micah Zenko describes five issues to consider in the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran.
Although Lebanon has a new U.S.-backed Prime Minister, Hezbollah remains the dominant military and political force and it holds the key to both domestic and external stability, writes Mohamad Bazzi.
For more conflict prevention analysis, visit CFR's Center for Preventive Action.
Williams argues that the status quo for peace operations in untenable and that greater U.S. involvement is necessary to enhance the quality and success of peacekeeping missions.
The authors argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power and recommend placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Campbell evaluates the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency and recommends that the United States support Nigerian efforts to address the drivers of Boko Haram, such as poverty and corruption, and to foster stronger ties with Nigerian civil society.
In The Hacked World Order, CFR Senior Fellow Adam Segal shows how governments use the web to wage war and spy on, coerce, and damage each other. More
Red Team provides an in-depth investigation into the work of red teams, revealing the best practices, most common pitfalls, and most effective applications of these modern-day devil's advocates. More
Through insightful analysis and engaging graphics, How America Stacks Up explores how the United States can keep pace with global economic competition. More
Learn more about CFR’s mission and its work over the past year in the 2015 Annual Report. The Annual Report spotlights new initiatives, high-profile events, and authoritative scholarship from CFR experts, and includes a message from CFR President Richard N. Haass.
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