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Conflict in the Horn of Africa is escalating rapidly as power struggles within Somalia are exacerbated by military support that both Ethiopia and Eritrea give to the opposing parties there. Ethiopia backs the weak interim government; Eritrea sponsors the Islamic militants fighting to overthrow it. Because the United States has accused Somalia of harboring al-Qaeda suspects, “the Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict increases the opportunities for terrorist infiltration of the Horn and East Africa and for ignition of a larger regional conflict,” warns a new Council Special Report.
A pair of Somalia experts, Terrence Lyons and Sadia Ali Aden, discuss U.S. policy options for the war-torn nation on Africa's Horn.
Micah Zenko highlights the findings of the Center for Preventive Action’s 2016 Preventive Priorities Survey, which identifies plausible sources of conflict or instability and ranks them based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming calendar year and their potential impact on U.S. interests.
Steven Cook argues that Cairo is no longer a mediator between Israel and Palestine, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is only looking out for Egypt amidst the latest rounds of violence.
Recent media coverage has revealed that some officials in Japan see the U.S. response in Crimea as a litmus test for its willingness to intervene in a Senkaku contingency.
"Conflict prevention's placement as a policy goal deep within the National Security Strategy (NSS), and the lack of specificity about how this is pursued, says a lot about how the U.S. government thinks about preventing future wars," Micah Zenko writes. Heprovides a series of recommendations to address under-prioritization and under-development of conflict prevention in U.S. policies and strategies.
Thanks to the rift between Turkey and Israel, Ankara's days as a power broker in the Arab-Israeli conflict are over, says Steven A. Cook.
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon says the hotel bombing in Kabul raises the stakes for an already fragile peace process in Afghanistan.
Micah Zenko and Rebecca R. Friedman argue, "... a fully funded foreign assistance budget is essential to prevent the political instability and violent conflict that harms American security."
Mohamad Bazzi says that without a strong central state that can defend itself, Hizbollah remains the most powerful force in Lebanon.
Micah Zenko asks, "What if Americans were the ones without nuclear weapons, and a well-stocked Iran was insisting that the United States couldn't have such weapons?"
To ensure global stability, Richard N. Haass warns, "... we should be careful not to learn the wrong lesson and rule out helping weak states."
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Micah Zenko describes five issues to consider in the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran.
Although Lebanon has a new U.S.-backed Prime Minister, Hezbollah remains the dominant military and political force and it holds the key to both domestic and external stability, writes Mohamad Bazzi.
For more conflict prevention analysis, visit CFR's Center for Preventive Action.
To ensure the success of Myanmar's historic democratic transition, the United States should revise its outdated and counterproductive sanctions policy.
Blackwill and Campbell analyze the rise of Chinese President Xi Jinping and call for a new American grand strategy for Asia.
Williams argues that greater U.S. involvement is necessary to enhance the quality and success of peacekeeping missions.
Kurlantzick offers the sharpest analysis yet of what state capitalism’s emergence means for democratic politics around the world. More
In a cogent analysis of why the United States is losing ground as a world power, Blackwill and Harris explore the statecraft of geoeconomics. More
Takeyh and Simon reframe the legacy of U.S. involvement in the Arab world from 1945 to 1991 and shed new light on the makings of the contemporary Middle East. More
Learn more about CFR’s mission and its work over the past year in the 2015 Annual Report. The Annual Report spotlights new initiatives, high-profile events, and authoritative scholarship from CFR experts, and includes a message from CFR President Richard N. Haass.
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