This Center for Preventive Action Working Paper surveys existing approaches to assessing state fragility and failure within the context of development, conflict, and governance. It examines the risk factors that have been identified through systematic inquiry and research with the goal of improving the prospects for successful conflict prevention and management, and argues that the goal of "early warning" relating to state fragility and failure should be more to inform and temper our expectations for policy response than to trigger costly and risky interventions.
Authors: Christopher Dickey, John Barry, and Owen Matthews
Middle East Regional Editor Christopher Dickey, Contributing Editor John Barry, and Moscow Bureau Chief Owen Matthews report that Russia is weaker than it looks. Most NATO leaders insist the world is too interdependent to allow another cold war. Russia is not the Soviet Union. And Western powers don't want to be drawn into a game of bluff that will only inflate Vladimir Putin's prestige.
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The authors argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power and recommend placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Campbell evaluates the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency and recommends that the United States support Nigerian efforts to address the drivers of Boko Haram, such as poverty and corruption, and to foster stronger ties with Nigerian civil society.
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