Conflict Prevention

Must Read

USIP: Preventing Genocide: A Blueprint for U.S. Policymakers

Authors: Madeleine K. Albright and William S. Cohen

This report by the United States Institute of Peace outlines the specific actions U.S. policymakers can take to prevent genocide, ranging from institution building to international parternships.

The Genocide Prevention Task Force was launched on November 13, 2007 and released its report to the public on December 8, 2008. It was jointly convened by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, The American Academy of Diplomacy, and the U.S. Institute of Peace.  It was funded by private foundations.  Its goals were: (1) To spotlight genocide prevention as a national priority; and; (2) To develop practical policy recommendations to enhance the capacity of the U.S. government to respond to emerging threats of genocide and mass atrocities.

The report, which is entitled "Preventing Genocide: A Blueprint for U.S. Policymakers", asserts that genocide is preventable, and that making progress toward doing so begins with leadership and political will.  The report provides 34 recommendations, starting with the need for high-level attention, standing institutional mechanisms, and strong international partnerships to respond to potential genocidal situations when they arise; it lays out a comprehensive approach, recommending improved early warning mechanisms, early action to prevent crises, timely diplomatic responses to emerging crises, greater preparedness to employ military options, and action to strengthen global norms and institutions.

See more in Human Rights, Conflict Assessment, Conflict Prevention

Must Read

Newsweek: The Realist Resurgence

Authors: Christopher Dickey, John Barry, and Owen Matthews

Middle East Regional Editor Christopher Dickey, Contributing Editor John Barry, and Moscow Bureau Chief Owen Matthews report that Russia is weaker than it looks. Most NATO leaders insist the world is too interdependent to allow another cold war. Russia is not the Soviet Union. And Western powers don't want to be drawn into a game of bluff that will only inflate Vladimir Putin's prestige.

See more in Russian Fed., NATO, NATO, Conflict Prevention

Must Read

Eurasianet: Afghan-Pakistani Tension Could Create Opening For Iran

Author: Alex Vatanka

This report from Eurasianet, part of the Open Society Institute, argues that lingering acrimony in Afghan-Pakistani relations could create a diplomatic opening for Iran to increase its economic and political influence in Kabul. The report says that Afghan-Pakistani tension is rooted in the revived Taliban insurgency: despite repeated denials by Islamabad, the prevailing sentiment in Kabul is that Pakistan is providing critical assistance to the Taliban. Afghan media now openly depict Islamabad as striving to undermine President Hamid Karzai’s administration. Afghan officials evidently believe that Pakistan seeks to recover political leverage in Afghanistan that it lost after the Taliban regime was driven from Kabul in 2001.

See more in Afghanistan, Iran, Conflict Prevention

Must Read

Brookings: Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover From an Iraqi Civil War

Authors: Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack

The Brookings Institution says that ‘with each passing day, Iraq sinks deeper into the abyss of civil war.’ It considers how the United States could stop the slide into all-out war, and what actions the US should take if it becomes clear that Iraq cannot be saved from such a conflict. The report considers the history of civil wars in the recent past, and draws a set of lessons regarding how civil wars can affect the interests of other countries, even distant ones like the United States, and then used those lessons to fashion a set of recommendations for how Washington might begin to develop a new strategy for an Iraq caught up in all-out civil war.

See more in Iraq, Conflict Prevention

Must Read

USIP: Central African Republic, Chad, and Sudan: Triangle of Instability?

Author: Kelly Campbell

In this report the US Institute for Peace (USIP) details proceedings at its Sudan Peace Forum in December 2006 in which Dr Chester Crocker and Dr Francis Deng co-chaired a discussion of overlapping crises in Darfur, Chad and the Central African Republic. The meeting was prompted by recent comments of the United Nations Under Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs Jan Egeland, who warned that the crises in Darfur, Chad, and CAR are "intimately linked" and could lead to a "dangerous regional crisis."

See more in Central Afr. Rep, Chad, Sudan, Conflict Assessment, Conflict Prevention

Must Read

ORG: Iran: Consequences of a War

Author: Paul Rogers

This briefing paper by Professor Paul Rogers of the Oxford Research Group (ORG) provides an analysis of the likely nature of US or Israeli military action that would be intended to disable Iran's nuclear capabilities. It outlines both the immediate consequences in terms of loss of human life, facilities and infrastructure, and also the likely Iranian responses, which the report says would be extensive. An attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would signal the start of a protracted military confrontation that would probably grow to involve Iraq, Israel and Lebanon, as well as the USA and Iran, says ORG. The report concludes that a military response to the current crisis in relations with Iran is a particularly dangerous option and should not be considered further.

See more in Iran, Conflict Prevention

News Release

State Department Needs “Clear Guidelines” on Engaging with Nonstate Armed Groups

Recent data on organized violence shows that conflicts between a state and one or more nonstate armed groups vastly outnumber interstate conflicts. As a result, argues former international affairs fellow Payton L. Knopf in a new CFR Working Paper, the State Department needs clear guidelines as to why, when, and how its diplomats should conduct outreach to these groups.

See more in Horn of Africa, Sudan, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Peacemaking, Terrorist Organizations