Elections

Article

Will Brexit Affect U.S. Consumer Confidence? The Outcome May Determine Our Next President

Authors: Benn Steil and Emma Smith
PBS NewsHour

Benn Steil’s June 24 op-ed on the PBS NewsHour Making$ense site, co-authored with Emma Smith, shows the strong relationship between consumer confidence and presidential elections going back to 1952. Current readings suggest an 80% chance of a Clinton victory, but the Brexit aftermath threatens to knock that down significantly.

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Foreign Affairs Article

American Political Decay or Renewal?

Author: Francis Fukuyama

Two years ago, I argued in these pages that America was suffering from political decay. The country’s constitutional system of checks and balances, combined with partisan polarization and the rise of well-financed interest groups, had combined to yield what I labeled “vetocracy,” a situation in which it was easier to stop government from doing things than it was to use govern­ment to promote the common good.

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Article

Why Donald Trump's Plan for Japan Would Be a Nightmare for Asia

Author: Sheila A. Smith
Vox

Republican Party’s Presumptive Nominee for President Donald Trump stated that he would consider ending the U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense and encouraging it to develop its own nuclear arsenal. Sheila A. Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies, argues that such an act would not only be a nightmare scenario for Japan, but would profoundly alter the strategic dynamics that have maintained peace in the Asia-Pacific for generations

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Article

When You Can’t Stand Your Candidate

Author: Elliott Abrams
Weekly Standard

How should Republicans who are aghast at the forthcoming nomination of Donald Trump react, now and after the convention? There are valuable lessons from 1972, when “Jackson Democrats” and others in the Democratic Party had to deal with the McGovern nomination.

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Article

The Republican Party Is Dead

Author: Max Boot
Los Angeles Times

I have been a Republican as long as I can remember. Joining the Grand Old Party seemed like a natural choice for someone like me who fled the Soviet Union as a boy and came to Los Angeles with his mother and grandmother in 1976. Refugees from communism, whether from Russia or Cuba, generally oppose socialism and embrace conservative political views.

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Article

Why North Korean Threat Is a More Urgent Issue for Next U.S. President

Author: Scott A. Snyder
cnn.com

The more vulnerable Kim Jong Un feels atop a weakening North Korea, the more he seeks a silver bullet to ensure the regime's long-term survival. On May 6, Kim may enjoy a Korean Worker's Party conference that will celebrate his achievements and consolidate his rule. He may even think that his nuclear deterrent has bought time and saved money that can be used to improve North Korea's economy. But the regime's own systemic need to generate instability as a primary means of exerting domestic political control guarantees that the young leader will never have enough nuclear weapons to achieve absolute security, writes Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

See more in North Korea; United States; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Elections