Franco Pavoncello interviewed by Christopher Alessi
Eurozone leaders meeting for tomorrow's summit are unnecessarily worried about contagion to Italy, but a growing sovereign debt crisis highlights the role of politics in the markets and the need to find common, EU-wide solutions, says expert Franco Pavoncello.
Greece will undoubtedly receive a second bailout from the EU and IMF. But expert Daniel Gros says it remains to be seen whether default is inevitable and if banks and other private bondholders will also take a hit.
Saving the European Union requires a plan to allow fiscally weak member countries to fail, as well as painful lifestyle changes and some loss of national sovereignty, says the Centre for European Policy Studies' Daniel Gros.
Debt restructuring and longer-term eurozone reforms will be needed to contain Europe's sovereign debt problems and restore European stability and prosperity, says CFR's Marc Levinson.
The IMF and European leaders have gotten serious about Greece's debt, says CFR's Charles Kupchan. But the crisis also raises concerns about the eurozone's unity.
Rating agency S&P's decision to downgrade Greek debt to "junk" may lead to softened pre-conditions for an IMF-EU bailout and a swifter European response, says CFR's Marc Levinson.
Developed countries should embrace a stronger IMF while pressing for more equitable voting rights that would boost the institution's legitimacy, says former IMF board member Domenico Lombardi.
Early stimulus withdrawal would hurt the U.S. economy, but the U.S. Treasury needs to announce a debt-reducing strategy to buoy market confidence, says sovereign debt expert Carmen Reinhart.
Markets' reaction to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and other European countries suggests global governments "have used up all their ammunition to boost global growth," and could be punished by the markets if they sustain stimulus programs, says CFR's Sebastian Mallaby.
Standard Chartered CEO Peter Sands says Western and Asian economies are both at risk of asset bubbles and that higher savings and social safety nets in Asia are not a near-term fix to global financial problems.
CFR's Marc Levinson says further international coordination on financial regulation may do more harm than good and expresses doubts about federal restrictions on executive pay.
CFR's Benn Steil says the dollar's continuing decline could result in higher prices for major imports like energy and, in a worst-case scenario, might lead to higher inflation and interest rates.
Analyst Edwin Truman says the IMF is gaining power but its influence will depend on its assertiveness with countries like the United States and China, as well as the pace of its own reforms.
CFR's Roger M. Kubarych says the G-20 summit will find leaders relieved that the worst of the global economic crisis is over but divided over substantive changes to the world's financial architecture.
Despite early signs of a global economic recovery, CFR Steven Dunaway says it's too early to determine how lasting the rebound might be. "The world economy is not out of the woods yet," he says.
Gillian Tett of the Financial Times assesses the new U.S. plan for regulating derivatives markets and says regulators must balance the need to create transparency against the risk of stifling financial innovation.
CFR's Sebastian Mallaby says the G-20 summit could mark the beginnings of a profound shift in global financial regulation. But he says challenges lurk in the way the IMF is funded and how it monitors economic governance.
CFR economic expert Sebastian Mallaby credits President Obama with highlighting the long-term structural reforms needed to repair the U.S. economy and competitiveness, but says the scope of reforms may be too ambitious.
Award-winning historian Walter Russell Mead says, "The key political question of the twenty-first century is, 'How does the U.S.-China relationship develop?'"
The Council on Foreign Relations' David Rockefeller Studies Program—CFR's "think tank"—is home to more than seventy full-time, adjunct, and visiting scholars and practitioners (called "fellows"). Their expertise covers the world's major regions as well as the critical issues shaping today's global agenda. Download the printable CFR Experts Guide.
Special operations play a critical role in how the United States confronts irregular threats, but to have long-term strategic impact, the author argues, numerous shortfalls must be addressed.
The author analyzes the potentially serious consequences, both at home and abroad, of a lightly overseen drone program and makes recommendations for improving its governance.
Two experts argue that despite myriad development strategies, only one can succeed in alleviating poverty in India: the overall growth of the country's economy. More