Elizabeth C. Economy and Michael Levi explore how Chinese demand drive global commodity prices, the broader implications of the Chinese slowdown for the global economy and regional security, and consequences of China’s resource quest for the world’s resource-producing states and industries.
Concern about inequality in the U.S. is getting well-deserved attention. Unfortunately, though, discussions of the problem too often rest on three misconceptions: that capital is rising as a share of the economy, that most of the rise in wage inequality is explained by growing gaps within companies between higher and lower paid workers, and that workers are increasingly moving from one job to another.
CFR adjunct fellow Blake Clayton draws on a century's worth of statistical data to offer a revolutionary new look at volatility and crisis in oil markets. Clayton explores the conditions in which oil supply fears arise, gain popularity, and eventually wane, and demonstrates the significant effects these stories have on financial markets.
As oil prices continue to drop, Michael Levi argues that the benefit to American consumers will outweigh any damage to the U.S. economy. However, how you view this plunge in oil prices "depends a lot on where you live and what work you do."
A. Michael Spence urges China's leaders to be steady-handed and sensible in their foreign policy and domestic reform agendas so as to maintain the kind of economic stability necessary for complex structural changes to work their way through the Chinese economy with minimal disruption.
"This is not the first time that developing countries have been hit hard by abrupt mood swings in global financial markets. The surprise is that we are surprised. Economists, in particular, should have learned a few fundamental lessons long ago."
Authors: Benn Steil and Dinah Walker Forbes Online
Benn Steil's latest op-ed in Forbes, co-authored with Dinah Walker, shows that the Fed's incorporation of the unemployment rate into its forward guidance has been a failure. Such poor communications could roil the markets as the Fed shifts policy from accommodation to tightening.
Authors: Benn Steil and Dinah Walker Wall Street Journal
Benn Steil's latest op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, co-authored with Dinah Walker, shows that developing countries running large current account deficits have seen their economies whipsawed by volatile capital flows triggered by unconventional monetary policy at the Fed and elsewhere in the developed world. The clear lesson for such countries is that they should pursue policies which constitute "currency manipulation" in Washington, thereby setting the stage for rising global trade tensions.
Michael Spence argues that continued U.S. debt ceiling brinkmanship will reinforce perceptions that American politics are helplessly parochial, encourage other nations to diversify away from holding U.S. sovereign debt, and accelerate the decline of America's global economic influence.
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