It is not clear how the interim Geneva agreement between Iran and the P5+1 powers will affect Iran's relationship with Lebanon-basedHezbollahor Hezbollah's regional influence. According to the IAEA'smost recent report, Iran's stockpile of medium-enriched uranium has decreased substantially from its prior levels, suggesting that Iran is implementing the Geneva agreement, at least for the time being. One could certainly argue that if Iran continues to comply with the deal and forecloses its nuclear option, it will no longer be able to easily project influence with the threat of nuclear weapons acquisition or a latent nuclear capability. By this logic, Iran may choose to rely more heavily on Hezbollah to make its presence felt throughout the region. This is certainly a concern of other Gulf States, whofear that the nuclear deal does not address the threat that proxy groups may pose to their regimes.
Three contributors to the Foreign Affairs ebook Iran and the Bomb 2: A New Hope—CFR Senior Fellow Elliott Abrams, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Suzanne Maloney, and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Vice President George Perkovich—discuss the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 over Iran's nuclear program, including the debate about potential U.S. sanctions against Iran.
Authors: Max Boot and Michael Doran New York Times
Max Boot and Michael Doran argue that the Obama administration's efforts to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran have contributed to the recent instability in the Middle East and are destined to fail in the end.
The P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China, facilitated by the European Union) met with Iran in Geneva to discuss a diplomatic resolution regarding Iran's nuclear program. They released an initial plan of action November 24, 2013. The State Department released updates on January 12, 2014, and on July 22, 2014. On April 2, 2015, the group released the P5+1 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's Nuclear Program.
Authors: Frank G. Klotz and Oliver Bloom Strategic Studies Quarterly
Frank Klotz and Oliver Bloom examine the prospect of formal discussions with China on strategic stability and nuclear arms control, and address recent debates on China's nuclear capabilities and doctrine.
There is a "total omission of Israel's nuclear weapons in U.S. policy debates about confronting Iran," writes Micah Zenko. In his latest article, Micah discusses the unspoken threat of Israel's nuclear arsenal, which the country has long refused to acknowledge.
"The best means of guaranteeing adherence is to make certain that sanctions relief is always provisional and can be reconstituted if Iran violates its obligations," writes Ray Takeyh about the West's nuclear deal with Iran.
We don't know whether relations with Iran will go toward peace or war, but the interim freeze again under negotiations this week holds little risk and much promise. Don't let the hawks on both sides kill it, writes Leslie H. Gelb.
The authors argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power and recommend placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Campbell evaluates the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency and recommends that the United States support Nigerian efforts to address the drivers of Boko Haram, such as poverty and corruption, and to foster stronger ties with Nigerian civil society.
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