Politics and Strategy

Event

Brazil Update

Speaker: Shannon K. O'Neil
Presider: Michael T. Derham

CFR's Shannon K. O'Neil analyzes of the impeachment of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff and the implications for Brazil’s economy and its ability to govern in the coming months.

See more in Brazil; Politics and Strategy

Op-Ed

An Earful for Vladimir Putin in Latest ‘Direct Line’ Call-In Show

Author: Stephen Sestanovich
Wall Street Journal

It’s easy to snicker at Vladimir Putin’s annual televised call-in extravaganza, known as “Direct Line.” The show’s campy, “Dear Leader” deference would hardly be greater if Kim Jong Un were its star. Still, Mr. Putin’s performance is a valuable political barometer. The questions allowed and the answers they generate tell us how the Kremlin views the country’s mind and mood.

See more in Russian Federation; Presidents and Chiefs of State

News Release

Geoeconomic Tools Can Preserve U.S. Global Power, Write Blackwill and Harris in New Book

“Despite having the most powerful economy on earth, the United States too often reaches for the gun instead of the purse,” contend Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Senior Fellows Robert D. Blackwill and Jennifer M. Harris in a new book, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft. Instead, argue Blackwill and Harris, the United States must strategically integrate economic and financial instruments into its foreign policy—what they define as geoeconomics—or risk losing ground as a world power. 

See more in Asia and Pacific; Diplomacy and Statecraft

Article

The Unsung Success of Nuclear Nonproliferation

Author: Philip H. Gordon
Nikkei Asian Review

When U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump mused about the possibility of Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia developing their own nuclear weapons, it was probably not his intention to highlight the success of the nuclear nonproliferation regime or the policy of President Barack Obama's administration.

See more in United States; Asia and Pacific; Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament; Elections

Op-Ed

Donald Trump vs. Barack Obama on Nuclear Weapons in East Asia

Author: Stephen Sestanovich
Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump broke a lot of foreign-policy crockery last week. President Barack Obama dressed him down for encouraging South Korea and Japan to acquire nuclear weapons. NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, has criticized him too. Academics trying to parse Mr. Trump’s statements can’t figure out which “school” of foreign-policy thinking he belongs to. (So far, my favorite scholarly comment has been: “There is no indication that Trump understands the workings of balance of power theory…” Of course, there is no indication that Mr. Trump cares about the workings of any theories—and no real danger that he subscribes to them.)

See more in United States; Elections; Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

Event

Public Opinion and the 2016 Election

Speaker: Kellyanne Conway
Speaker: Scott Miller
Speaker: Douglas E. Schoen
Presider: Elliot Stein

Experts discuss their insights and polling research on U.S. public opinions and attitudes towards the presidential candidates and the U.S. political system.

See more in United States; Elections

Op-Ed

The Trump-Sanders China Syndrome

Authors: Benn Steil and Emma Smith
Wall Street Journal

Benn Steil’s op-ed in the March 30 edition of the Wall Street Journal, co-authored with Emma Smith, looks at presidential campaign charges that China is engaged in “currency manipulation” to boost net exports.  They show that the aims of China’s pegged exchange rate regime have varied over the past two decades, and have not always been mercantilist. In recent months, with capital flowing out of China at a prodigious rate, its interventions have been to keep its currency up—not down.  Launching a trade war with China over currency management, as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders intend, would therefore be nonsensical—as well as damaging to U.S. interests.

See more in China; United States; Monetary Policy; Elections

Op-Ed

Preparing for Change

Author: Daniel S. Markey
The Cipher Brief

For over six decades, the United States and Pakistan have suffered through a tormented and often tumultuous relationship, one defined at its apex by wartime alliance and at its nadir by stiff U.S. sanctions. In many ways, the period since 9/11 has mirrored that longer history, with expectations inflated and dashed, overblown rhetoric, and in the end, more frustration than satisfaction.

See more in United States; Pakistan; Diplomacy and Statecraft