Though a new IAEA report adds to concerns about Iran's nuclear program and U.S. opposition to the program is warranted, there's no clear proof that the country is pursuing weapons or would act belligerently if it succeeded, says CFR's Matthew Fuhrmann.
CFR's Stephen Sestanovich says Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's meetings in Silicon Valley represent the most interesting development of his U.S. trip, which culminates with a Washington summit where a host of issues will be discussed, including the new START treaty.
The Security Council's approval of tougher sanctions on Iran marks a diplomatic victory for the Obama administration. But Iran retains momentum, too, and the ability to continue its uranium enrichment program, writes CFR's James Lindsay.
How would an Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability affect U.S. policy in the Middle East? In this discussion paper, sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Mitchell B. Reiss enumerates several strategic choices that would face U.S. regional allies and the adverse implications for U.S. interests.
How would the Arab states of the Middle East react if Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapons capability? In this Working Paper, sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Michael Young explores the possible impact of a nuclear Iran on Arab governments' self-perceptions, relations with Iran, relations with one another, and relations with non-Arab actors in the region such as the United States and Turkey. Young concludes that an Iranian nuclear weapon would threaten to drastically alter the regional status quo, empower Iran and its allies, and provoke sectarian reactions from some Arab states.
From a military perspective, what would be required for a containment scheme to successfully deter a nuclear Iran? In this Working Paper, sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Kenneth M. Pollack presents formal and informal structures requisite to effectively deter a postnuclear Iran. Pollack's robust recommendations take into consideration important lessons learned during the Cold War.
Given the nature and structure of its government, is it possible to contain an Iran with nuclear weapons? In this discussion paper, sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Frederick W. Kagan explores the applicability of deterrence--from a historic and theoretical perspective--to the Iranian regime. Kagan concludes that for numerous structural and strategic reasons, it is impossible to assess with any confidence that the Islamic Republic with nuclear weapons could be contained or deterred.
Iran's elite displayed more unity in supporting the nuclear fuel-swap deal backed by Brazil and Turkey than it did with a similar deal last year and appears intent on trying to solve the nuclear crisis, says analyst Farideh Farhi.
The authors argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power and recommend placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Campbell evaluates the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency and recommends that the United States support Nigerian efforts to address the drivers of Boko Haram, such as poverty and corruption, and to foster stronger ties with Nigerian civil society.
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