A growing power struggle in Tehran adds new concerns for deterring Iran's nuclear ambitions. Analysts' recommendations for the U.S. range from engaging in direct talks to increasing pressure on the regime and trying to erode the regime's popular base.
Authors: Kenneth M. Pollack and Ray Takeyh The Washington Quarterly
Kenneth M. Pollack and Ray Takeyh state, ""... it is time to appreciate that the only manner of inducing meaningful change in the Islamic Republic's behavior without the resort to war is to otherwise imperil its very existence."
Ray Takeyh argues that despite economic sanctions and other attempts to curtail technological development in Iran, its nuclear program has grown in sophistication and capability over the past two decades.
The nuclear nonproliferation regime has had difficulty dealing with noncompliance and preventing the illicit use of dual-use materials. A strengthened Proliferation Security Initiative can help prevent proliferation and mobilize international action.
The events convulsing the Middle East should prompt supplier states to place a moratorium on most nuclear cooperation with the region and devise long-term plans for better safeguarding major nuclear sites around the world, writes CFR's Jonathan Pearl.
As former president Jimmy Carter visits Pyongyang, any movement on resumption of stalled talks on North Korea's denuclearization is unlikely, says CFR fellow Sue Terry. Washington should continue to deter Pyongyang's aggressive behavior using sanctions and working with regional allies, she says.
A summit hosted by the Obama administration one year ago has spurred momentum on global nuclear security measures. But the United States must lead efforts to redouble commitments on preventing the proliferation of nuclear materials, writes CFR's Emma Belcher.
Authors: Eric S. Edelman, Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., and Evan Braden Montgomery
It is unclear how a nuclear-armed Iran would weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of brinkmanship, meaning that it could be difficult to deter Tehran from attacking the United States' interests or partners in the region.
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The author examines Pakistan's complex role in U.S. foreign policy and advocates for a two-pronged approach that works to quarantine threats while integrating Pakistan into the broader U.S. agenda in Asia.