Conflict Prevention

Teaching Module

Teaching Module: Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea

Author: Paul B. Stares

This module features teaching notes by CFR Senior Fellow and Director of CFR's Center for Preventative Action Paul B. Stares, coauthor of Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea, along with other resources to supplement the text. This Council Special Report addresses the foreign policy challenge of how the United States and its allies can prepare for the possibility of sudden and destabilizing change in North Korea.

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Council Special Report No. 42

Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea

Authors: Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit

North Korea has long been a serious concern to Washington. Now, with President Kim Jong-Il reportedly in bad health and possibly naming a successor, the United States must consider possible outcomes should the situation deteriorate and the current North Korean government collapse. This report examines the challenges that these scenarios would pose--ranging from securing Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal to providing humanitarian assistance--in the context of the interests of the United States and others in its valuable recommendations.

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Other Report

Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk

Author: Monty G. Marshall

This Center for Preventive Action Working Paper surveys existing approaches to assessing state fragility and failure within the context of development, conflict, and governance. It examines the risk factors that have been identified through systematic inquiry and research with the goal of improving the prospects for successful conflict prevention and management, and argues that the goal of "early warning" relating to state fragility and failure should be more to inform and temper our expectations for policy response than to trigger costly and risky interventions.

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