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Foreign Policy: The Americas, Not the Middle East, Will Be the World Capital of Energy

Author: Amy Myers Jaffe
Sept/Oct 2011

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Technological advances raise the question of what the U.S. energy industry might accomplish if prices continue to rise. According to author Amy Myers Jaffe, a global energy shift is in the near future that will move the world's supply from the Middle East, back to the Americas.

For half a century, the global energy supply's center of gravity has been the Middle East. This fact has had self-evidently enormous implications for the world we live in -- and it's about to change.

By the 2020s, the capital of energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere, where it was prior to the ascendancy of Middle Eastern megasuppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the 1960s. The reasons for this shift are partly technological and partly political. Geologists have long known that the Americas are home to plentiful hydrocarbons trapped in hard-to-reach offshore deposits, on-land shale rock, oil sands, and heavy oil formations. The U.S. endowment of unconventional oil is more than 2 trillion barrels, with another 2.4 trillion in Canada and 2 trillion-plus in South America -- compared with conventional Middle Eastern and North African oil resources of 1.2 trillion. The problem was always how to unlock them economically.

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