Contingency Planning Memorandum

PrintPrint EmailEmail ShareShare CiteCite
Style:MLAAPAChicagoClose

loading...

A Third Lebanon War

CPA Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 8

Author: Daniel C. Kurtzer

A Third Lebanon War - a-third-lebanon-war

Publisher Council on Foreign Relations Press

Release Date July 2010

8 pages

Share

Overview

There is growing concern of renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant Islamist group. Since the last major Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon in the summer of 2006, Hezbollah has steadily rearmed and its arsenal is now more potent in quality and quantity. Israel could assess that the threat to its national security has grown intolerable and strike Hezbollah to degrade its military capabilities. An Israel-Hezbollah conflict could also be precipitated by Hezbollah attacking Israel, either for internal political reasons or at the behest of Iran, with which it has close ties. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel C. Kurtzer discusses the most plausible scenarios and associated warning signs of a "Third Lebanon War," its implications for the United States, and U.S. policy options to reduce the likelihood of renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict and mitigate the consequences should it occur. Kurtzer recommends that the United States work to avert a third Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah by taking measures to reassure Israel, deter Hezbollah, and pressure Syria from providing Hezbollah access to destabilizing weapons. Concurrently, the United States should heighten its preparedness to respond quickly in the event of war between Israel and Hezbollah including, potentially, a wider diplomatic initiative for regional peace.

More About This Publication

Daniel C. Kurtzer is lecturer and S. Daniel Abraham professor in Middle Eastern policy studies at Princeton University.

More on This Topic

Foreign Affairs Article

Haters Gonna Hate

Authors: Christian Madsbjerg and Gregory Fried

The German philosopher Martin Heidegger has always been a deeply problematic character. Scholars have long known that Heidegger was an active...

Foreign Affairs Article

Culture War

Author: James Cuno

In December 2007, the Italian government opened an exhibition in Rome of 69 artifacts that four major U.S. museums had agreed to return to...

Op-Ed

Good and Bad Inequality

Author: A. Michael Spence
Project Syndicate

A. Michael Spence argues that economic inclusion sustains social and political cohesion—and hence the very growth needed to help mitigate the...