Contingency Planning Memorandum

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Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya

CPA Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 12

Author: Daniel Serwer, Professorial Lecturer and Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya - post-qaddafi-instability-in-libya

Publisher Council on Foreign Relations Press

Release Date August 2011

8 pages

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Overview

Multiple threats to Libya's stability and public order could emerge if the Qaddafi regime falls. Scenarios range from Qaddafi loyalist forces launching a violent resistance to internecine warfare breaking out among the rebel factions. This instability in Libya could lead to a humanitarian disaster, the emergence of a new authoritarian ruler, or even the country's dissolution. Given these potential consequences, Daniel Serwer recommends in this Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum that the European Union lead a post-Qaddafi stabilization force in Libya. The force preferably should fall under the United Nations umbrella with modest participation from the African Union and Arab League. The United States should support the stabilization effort with the aim of helping to establish a united and sovereign Libya with inclusive democratic institutions.

More About This Publication

Daniel Serwer is a professorial lecturer and senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a scholar at the Middle East Institute. He blogs at www.peacefare.net and tweets at @DanielSerwer.

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