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home > think tank > research projects > 2006 Corporate Conference "Vulnerabilities in the Global System"
March 9, 2006 - March 10, 2006
Meetings
World Economic Update: Conference Edition
Related Project: 2006 Corporate Conference "Vulnerabilities in the Global System"
| Speakers: | Peter Hooper, Partner & Chief U.S. Economist, Goldman, Sachs & Co. |
|---|---|
| Stephen S. Roach, Chief Economist & Managing Director, Morgan Stanley & Co. | |
| John P. Lipsky, Vice Chairman, J.P. Morgan Investment Bank | |
| Presider: | Daniel K. Tarullo, Managing Director & Chief U.S. Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities |
Transcript: 2006 CFR Corporate Conference: World Economic Update [Rush Transcript; Federal News Service, Inc.]
Audio: World Economic Update: Vulnerabilities in the Global System (audio)
Global Vulnerablities: A View from the Executive Suite
Related Project: 2006 Corporate Conference "Vulnerabilities in the Global System"
| Speakers: | Michael H. Jordan, Chairman & CEO, Electronic Data Systems Corporation |
|---|---|
| William P. Lauder, President & CEO, Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | |
| James W. Owens, Chairman & CEO, Caterpillar Inc. | |
| Presider: | Kenneth M. Duberstein, Chairman & CEO, the Duberstein Group, Inc.; former White House Chief of Staff to President Reagan |
Rob Portman
Related Project: 2006 Corporate Conference "Vulnerabilities in the Global System"
| Speaker: | Rob Portman, U.S. Trade Representative |
|---|---|
| Presider: | Robert D. Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs International, Goldman, Sachs & Co. |
Public Health: The Threat of Pandemic Disease
Related Project: 2006 Corporate Conference "Vulnerabilities in the Global System"
| Speakers: | Nils Daulaire, President & CEO, Global Health Council |
|---|---|
| Russell Greig, President of Pharmaceuticals International, GlaxoSmithKline | |
| Presider: | Helene D. Gayle, Director, HIV, TB, and Reproductive Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Further Readings
Davis, Ian, and Elizabeth Stephenson. “Ten Trends to Watch in 2006.” The McKinsey Quarterly (January 2006).
Macroeconomic factors, environmental and social issues, and business and industry developments will all profoundly shape the corporate landscape in the coming years.
Peterson, Peter G. “Riding the Fall.” Foreign Affairs (September/October 2004).
Three long-term trends are threatening to bankrupt America: the burgeoning costs of waging the war on terrorism, the U.S. economy’s increasing reliance on foreign capital, and rapid aging throughout the developed world. Washington must understand that committing the United States to a broader global role while ignoring the financial costs of doing so is deeply irresponsible.
Millstein, Ira M. “Corporate Governance: Creating Our Own Laws as Managers.” Vital Speeches of the Day (November 2003).
The events of the past few years—as well as the public, congressional, and regulatory response to them—represent a major watershed in the history of this country’s love/hate relationship with the corporation. Corporate governance is now a worldwide agenda with specific requirements for execution.
Schrage, Elliot. “Why CSR is a Corporate Governance Challenge.” Ethical Performance (October 2002).
A wave of human rights lawsuits against multinationals demonstrates the need for board oversight of CSR risks, says this article.
Shinn, James J., and Peter A. Gourevitch. How Shareholder Reforms Can Pay Foreign Policy Dividends, A CFR Paper (New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 2002).
In the wake of the Enron collapse and other business scandals, the United States must place corporate governance firmly on its foreign policy agenda, argue the authors of this study. According to this report, improving corporate governance and enhancing shareholder protections have several foreign policy advantages.
Banks, Howard. “Cheap Oil: Enjoy It While It Lasts.” Forbes 161, no. 12 (June 1998): 84-86.
As CEO of ENI SpA, Franco Bernabé forward a well-argued case that oil will be a lot dearer in the twenty-first century than it is in the twentieth, forecasting “that between 2000 and 2005 the world will be reaching peak production from our known fields, and after that, output will decline.”
Billig, Michelle. “The Venezuelan Oil Crisis.” Foreign Affairs (September/October 2004).
The 2003 crisis in Caracas caught Washington by surprise, causing oil prices to skyrocket and exposing flaws in U.S. ability to forecast and cope with threats to its oil supply. Both the government and industry must do better next time.
“Nervous Energy.” The Economist (January 2006).
Consumers are highly vulnerable to a sudden break in energy supplies. But so are producers.
Jaffe, Amy Myers. “Energy Security: Oil—Geopolitical and Strategic Implications for China and the United States.” James A. Baker III Center for Public Policy (July 2005).
Industrialization and globalization have increased Asia’s dependence on imported energy and its vulnerability to energy supply disruptions. Policymakers in China and the United States alike are considering new options to ensure energy security for their citizens—with implications for their relationship with one another and with other nations.
Flynn, Stephen E. “Port Security Still a House of Cards.” Far Eastern Economic Review 169 (January/February 2006): 5-13.
Transport systems have become favored targets for terrorist organizations, and it is only a matter of time before terrorists breach the superficial security measures in place to protect the ports, ships, and the millions of intermodal containers that link global producers to consumers. Fortunately, there are pragmatic measures that governments and the private sector can pursue right now that would substantially enhance the integrity and resilience of global trade lanes.
Flynn, Stephen E. The Department of Homeland Security: The Way Ahead After a Rocky Start. Written testimony before a hearing of The Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U. S. Senate, January 26, 2005.
Stephen Flynn offers an assessment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s ability to bolster our nation’s capacity to deal with the threat of catastrophic terrorism on U.S. soil, citing existing challenges and recommended responses.
Yergin, Daniel. “Energy Security and Markets.” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006).
The institutions and policies that were set up after the 1973 Arab oil embargo can no longer meet the needs of energy consumers or producers. The definition of energy security needs to be expanded to cope with the challenges of a globalized world.
Cooper, Sherry. “Pandemics, Panic, and the Global Economy.” In An Investor’s Guide to Avian Flu. BMO Nesbitt Burns Research (August 2005): 27-40.
The bottom line is that a pandemic, even one meaningfully less virulent than the 1918 Influenza breakout, would have hugely disruptive effects. The economic and societal effects of a pandemic, even a moderate one, are so severe that businesses and consumers need to join the medical and scientific community in creating a crisis prevention and management plan.
Garrett, Laurie. Responding to the Threat of Global, Virulent Influenza. Written testimony before a hearing of the Committee on Foreign Relations, U. S. Senate, November 9, 2005.
Laurie Garrett offers an assessment of the national response to the threat of pandemic influenza with emphasis on implications for foreign policy and national security.
Osterholm, Michael T. “Preparing for the Next Pandemic.” Foreign Affairs (July/August 2005).
If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.
Barshefsky, Charlene. “With or Without Doha.” Special edition, Foreign Affairs (December 2005).
Today, the United States confronts four urgent challenges: imbalances in global trade and capital flows, South America’s drift, Asia’s economic integration, and the Muslim world’s decline. International trade policy alone cannot solve these complex concerns, but it can play a pivotal role in dealing with each.
Hills, Carla A. “The Stakes of Doha.” Special edition, Foreign Affairs (December 2005).
Americans should care deeply about the Doha Round, but many do not understand what it means for them and the rest of the world. With the talks barely moving, it is time for supporters of free trade to educate the American people in order to give Washington the backing it needs to break the deadlock.
Portman, Rob. 2006 Trade Agenda. Presentation before the House Committee on Ways & Means, U.S. Congress, February 2006.
In his report to the House Committee on Ways & Means, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Portman outlines the administration’s trade agenda for 2006, citing World Trade Organization (WTO) trade negotiations, WTO accessions, the U.S. generalized system of preferences, FTA negotiations, and enforcement of trade law.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “Executive Summary.” In Economic Survey of China 2005 (September 2005).
Overview of the major internal economic developments in China over the past year, the status of its financial sector, and recommendations for reforms needed to strengthen the private sector forces driving growth.
Zakaria, Fareed. “Big Enough to Know Better.” Newsweek 146/147, no.26/1 (January 2006): 45.
Most economists believe that the newest numbers provide a more accurate picture of China’s economy, taking into account the service sector and small businesses, both of which have been hard to measure in the past. Zakaria postulates that China’s problems will stem not from failure but from success. 2006 might be the year that we begin to witness China’s problems, admittedly ones any developing country would kill for.
Zhou, Wenzhong. The Future of China-U.S. Relations. Remarks to the Asia Society, September 22, 2005.
In remarks before the Asia Society, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Wenzhong Zhou provides a brief overview of China-U.S. relations over the past quarter century, discusses the two nations' shared security concerns, and asserts his belief that a mutually beneficial diplomatic and economic relationship is possible. He also addresses the social and political differences between the U.S. and China and how potentially debilitating disagreements might be mended.
Zoellick, Robert B. Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility? Remarks to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, September 21, 2005.
Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick discusses the intergration of China as a full member of the international system. He argues that the nation has a responsibility to strengthen the international system that has enabled its success, both by increasing its openness to trade and by taking measures to accomodate the security concerns of other states. He further argues that China should avoid the mercantilist impulse of directing markets rather than opening them, working with the U.S. to ensure a growing trade relationship and stable energy supply. Internal political and human rights issues are also addressed.
Embassy of India. “Joint Statement: India—U.S. Financial and Economic Forum.” November 9, 2005.
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury John W. Snow led an official delegation to India to cochair the India-U.S. Financial and Economic Forum, which is part of the broader U.S.-Indian Economic Dialogue. The delegations discussed a number of important issues, including fiscal and tax policies, U.S. and Indian efforts to accelerate the WTO Doha Round negotiations, strengthening India's infrastructure, and collective efforts to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism.
Kochar, Kalpana, Utsav Kumar, Raghuram Rajan, and Arvind Subramanian. “India’s Patterns of Development: What Happened, What Follows.” National Bureau of Economic Research (February 2006).
India seems to have followed an idiosyncratic pattern of development, certainly compared to other fast-growing Asian economies. This report shows that some of these distinctive patterns existed even prior to the beginning of economic reforms in the 1980s and argues that they stem from the idiosyncratic policies adopted soon after India’s independence. It then looks to the future, using the growth of fast-moving Indian states as a guide. Despite recent reforms that have removed some of the policy impediments that might have sent India down its distinctive path, it appears unlikely that India will revert to the pattern followed by other countries.
Moreau, Ron. “The Last Word: Praful Patel; Is India Finally Taking Off?” Newsweek (February 2006).
One of the most obvious differences between Asia’s two giants, China and India, has long been the state of their infrastructure. During a recent worker uprising, Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel remained unmoved and, after three days of chaos, outlasted the strikers. Newsweek’s Ron Moreau spoke to the stylish forty-nine-year-old Patel about what the victory means for reform in India and the future of the nation’s infrastructure.
Blair, Tony. “Europe is Falling Behind.” Newsweek (November 2005): 22.
The new world we now find ourselves inhabiting is indifferent to tradition and past reputations, unforgiving of frailty, and ignorant of custom and practice. Success will go to those companies and countries which are swift to adapt, slow to complain, and open and willing to change. The task of modern governments is to ensure that our countries can rise to this challenge.
Commission of European Communities. “The EU Economy: 2005 Review.” A Communication to the Commission (November 2005).
An overview of the European economy at the end of 2005, including analysis of economic performance, the EU’s response to globalization, and challenges on the horizon.
Chinn, Menzie D. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits, A Council Special Report. (New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 2005)
The focus of this report is on the economic consequences of inaction with respect to the fiscal and current account deficits. “The longer we wait,” the report explains, “the greater the likelihood of a global financial and economic disruption. Even absent a discrete crisis, hewing to the current course raises the chances of stagnant economic growth, if not recession, in the future.” The report also shows that there may well be other ramifications.
Kirkland, Rick. “Bouncing Back from Terror.” Fortune 152, no. 2 (July 2005): 23-25.
In the immediate wake of that epochal terrorist assault, Fortune peered into an uncertain future and ventured that for a long time to come an essential tension would play out in our economy—“the tension between its resiliency and its fragility.” Four years on, buoyed by the markets’ impressively rapid rebound from the horrific July 7 bombings in London, there’s a new near-consensus among the financial commentariat: resilience tends to trump fragility every time. This article warns that this may not always be the case.
Roach, Stephen S. “The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing.” Financial Times, October 31, 2005, 19.
The longer any economy holds off in facing its imbalances, the greater the possibility of a hard landing. In Roach’s view, an unbalanced world has waited far too long to face up to the heavy lifting of global rebalancing. He concludes that there is now about a 40 percent probability of a hard landing at some point in the next twelve months.
In Termites in the Trading System, Jagdish Bhagwati reveals how the rapid spread of preferential trade agreements endangers the world trading system.
America Between the Wars explores how the decisions and debates of the years between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Twin Towers shaped the events, arguments, and politics of the world we live in today.
In The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State, Noah Feldman tells the story behind the increasingly popular call for the establishment of the sharia—the law of the traditional Islamic state—in the modern Muslim world.
Complete list of CFR Books.
This report outlines the nature of the challenges in Pakistan's tribal areas, formulates strategies for addressing those challenges, and distills the strategies into realistic policy proposals worthy of consideration by the incoming administration.
This report analyzes the debate over U.S. use of assurances against torture, explaining the contexts in which they are used, how they can be conveyed, and what they can contain, and recommends a number of ways to respond to criticism so that the United States can continue using assurances.
Complete list of Council Special Reports.
For more information on the David Rockefeller Studies Program, contact:
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gsamore@cfr.org
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Geoeconomic Studies, Deputy Director of Studies, and Paul A. Volcker Senior
Fellow for International Economics
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Deputy Director of Studies Administration
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