Study Group on Assessing the Future of Chinese Power

Director: Thomas Christensen
Chair: Harry Harding
Staff: Richard K. Betts, Adjunct Senior Fellow for National Security Studies
September 1, 1998 - June 1, 2000

Some of the principal issues in international politics in the next century will be how powerful China becomes, whether its military capabilities will develop commensurately with its economic output, and what challenges Chinese power will pose to regional and global order. Launched in January 1999, this study group held meetings in New York and Washington, D.C., to discuss the interrelationships of political, economic, and military developments in the evolution of Chinese power. Special attention was devoted to considering what might be learned from the experiences of other rising powers, the roles of other major powers in Asia (Japan, Russia, India), and problems in translating economic progress into modern military effectiveness. Richard K. Betts and Thomas J. Christensen are producing an article that draws on the discussions.

Meetings

Study Group Meeting

Reassessing the Role of Leadership Politics in Chinese Foreign Policy

Presider:

Thomas Christensen, Associate Professor of Political Science, MIT
January 25, 2000

This meeting is not for attribution.

Study Group Meeting

China's Military Capabilities

Presider:

Harry Harding

Speakers:

Michael Pillsbury, Defense Intelligence Agency, Lonnie Henley
May 5, 1999

This meeting is not for attribution.

Study Group Meeting

China's Relations with Other Powers in Asia

Presider:

Harry Harding

Speakers:

Chas W. Freeman, Projects International, Inc., Michael J. Green, Council on Foreign Relations
March 31, 1999

This meeting is not for attribution.

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Study Group Meeting

China and the East Asian Balance of Power

Presider:

Richard K. Betts

Speakers:

Arthur Waldron, University of Pennsylvania, Robert S. Ross
March 1, 1999

This meeting is not for attribution.

Study Group Meeting

Can China Be Powerful Without Being a Problem?

Presider:

Harry Harding

Speaker:

Thomas Christensen, Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
January 5, 1999

This meeting is not for attribution.