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| Author: | Judith Kipper |
|---|
July 8, 2001
The San Diego Union-Tribune
The Bush administration deserves high marks for its management of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. The success of a cease-fire is possible, but not yet probable. This asymmetrical Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not so much about reaching a goal, but rather a war of revenge born of frustration and rage. The conflict can never resolve the political problem between the parties, but it does provide the leaders and the extremists in both societies with real ammunition.
It is a sad truth that the level of violence is still tolerable for both Israelis and Palestinians. No one can judge how bad the pain has to get before they are willing to permanently end the war and return to negotiations. There is even an argument to be made that the leaders, whose primary consideration is domestic politics, benefit politically from a certain level of violence.
The problem, of course, is that the situation is spinning out of control. With the breakdown of security cooperation between Israeli and Palestinian officials, outsiders who aim to pour fuel on the fires have had a free hand to do so along with locals who genuinely see themselves as resistance fighters.
The question is not why there have been two intifadas, but rather why the Palestinians were nearly passive and rather obedient in the first 20 years of Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. It is instructive to recall that UNSCR 242 adopted after the 1967 war was meant to be implemented within six months. It remains the foundation of Middle East peacemaking to this day.
A third generation of Palestinians -- a vast majority under the age of 25 -- is living under a military occupation that has permeated every aspect of Palestinian life. For Israel, more than three decades of controlling the Palestinian population have become a self-defeating habit.
Gen. Ephraim Sneh, a minister in Israel's government, said the Palestinian intifada turns Israel's greatest strength -- its military -- into a weakness. It has become painfully clear to most Israelis that conventional force cannot and will not destroy Palestinian nationalism.
Public opinion in Israel despite the ongoing violence consistently supports the peace process and even freezing settlement activity in exchange for a cease-fire. In addition, Israel's campaign to humiliate and demonize Yasser Arafat is a futile strategy. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not now, nor ever has been, about an individual; it is about land for peace.
Israel's search for national and personal security is legitimate. Israel can easily defeat any combination of Arab forces yet Israelis are losing faith in their own deterrent capability resulting in a confused and fearful society. They do not know where to turn next in the absence of a clear road to a settlement with the Palestinian.
Palestinians are under siege, a situation which has inspired widespread grass-roots support for the intifada, to resist Israel forces. This intifada is a popular uprising, but the leaders of various Palestinian groups are taking advantage of the violence to position themselves in a battle for succession in the future.
Israelis and Palestinians feel victimized by the other side. This victimhood allows both sides to lash out, trying to prove who suffers more without taking responsibility for their own actions. Assassinations by the Israelis and Palestinian suicide bombers have reached a macabre acceptance and normalcy by two peoples who are deeply traumatized, not yet ready to give up being victims.
Neither side has prepared its domestic constituencies for an end of conflict with the other which calls into doubt the sincerity of their commitment and ability to reach a compromise for peace. Both are still focused on punishment rather than on consequences. What is certain is that neither side will accept the other's version of a settlement. Only an historic compromise that allows both Israelis and Palestinians to protect their identity and live in security is likely to forge a constituency for peace which will support negotiations.
In this volatile atmosphere, the United States needs to protect its considerable interests in the region by making absolutely sure that the leaders and their security chiefs know exactly and precisely what American red lines are for each of them, and, as important, specifically what the consequences will be if either dares to cross those red lines. Consequences are not punishment. Consequences are a reasonable demand for accountability. Understanding that every action Israelis and Palestinians take may have an American reaction has sorely been missing from U.S. diplomacy in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Since the end of the Cold War, the Israelis and Palestinians have engaged in a local conflict which has profound regional and global implications. Courageous leadership and vision will be necessary to resolve it. In the absence of leadership and vision, the United States has to take a hard look at making better use of the many instruments of policy at hand -- in addition to the military -- to protect American interests while continuing to do whatever is possible to get the parties to return to negotiations.
Diplomacy, economic aid, media and communications, cooperation with allies, setting limits and implementing consequences when red lines are crossed are only a few of the policy instruments available to Washington which have not been put to use.
Israelis and Palestinians who are still sane are in a deep state of grief knowing that the death and destruction on both sides will only produce more irrational behavior in their societies. Dialogue among even those who are sane has broken down because there is nothing left to say. They feel hopeless and powerless amid those who yearn for revenge.
Even in the United States, what has become a normal and routine dialogue between Jewish American and Arab American groups has broken down. Emotions are inflamed, there is a tendency to blame the other side, and a vacuum of ideas of how to move forward leave both communities isolated and in despair.
Israeli and Palestinian leaders are not listening to their own people who are tired, frightened and desperately want to end the conflict. Until they do, the conflict will continue and there is tragically little the United States can do to stop it.
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