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| Author: | Leslie H. Gelb, President Emeritus and Board Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations |
|---|
February 2, 2005
The New York Times
Elections decide who is to govern. Constitutions define the reach and limits of electoral power, and the viability and legitimacy of a government. The new Iraqi National Assembly is entitled to form an interim government that can function as long as its vast Shiite majority and large Kurdish contingent don't overreach. But this Assembly, with the Sunni Arab population underrepresented and the Kurds still a minority, is unlikely to write a constitution that protects minorities and inspires popular loyalty.
Many Iraqi leaders and American officials see this problem clearly and seem to be considering a solution: the new Assembly should forgo drafting the constitution and establish a special constitutional committee for that purpose. Such a committee would be selected to better reflect both Iraq's population and its power elites.
It's easy to keep the process legal and ensure it does not subvert the election. The election law gives the Assembly the responsibility for putting together the constitution. But it does not say the Assembly has to draft the document itself, or forbid it from assigning the duty to another body. Of course, the special body would still have to submit the draft for the Assembly's approval.
Members of this special constitutional committee would be chosen by the Assembly itself and could be Assembly members as well as appointees of the new government. The composition of the committee is critical. It should include Sunni Arabs in sufficient numbers; if they are not given a stake in the new Iraq, most will continue to help their vile insurgent brethren, willingly or unwillingly.
The committee must also engage Iraq's James Madisons and Ben Franklins. The constitutional committee has to include the real power brokers in religion, politics and commerce. It's not at all clear how many of these types were elected on Sunday. American officials probably don't know them all, but Iraqis do.
As a practical matter, these local leaders would provide the political cushioning necessary during the yearlong drafting process and would be essential to the final passage of the constitution. The public vote on its approval comes a year hence and requires a nationwide majority. But Iraqi leaders have agreed that the constitution can be blocked by a two-thirds vote in three of the nation's 18 provinces. That could happen in the three Kurdish provinces or in the four controlled by Sunni Arabs. With such stalemate would probably come civil war.
The Shiites would still rightfully form a majority of the constitutional committee, and they could insist on giving themselves strong constitutional powers in a centralized government. But that would be a mistake.
The only workable government would be a confederation with three largely autonomous regions -- Kurds in the north, Arab Sunnis in the center and Shiites in the south. The central government in Baghdad could be given limited powers under a Shiite majority, and large, mixed cities could receive ''special status.'' But whatever power-sharing arrangement is contrived in the new constitution, it has to embody a political deal that creates a legitimate government, a government that Iraqi forces will fight and die for.
This political legitimacy is what's missing from Washington's strategy. But instead of debating a political solution, all Washington seems interested in talking about is how many Iraqi troops have been trained, whether the figure is 4,000 or 120,000. The United States trained more than half a million South Vietnamese troops and trained them well. But the South Vietnamese never had loyalty to their government equal to that of the North Vietnamese or the South Vietnamese guerrillas to their cause.
We need to evoke just such a cause now if we are to avoid defeat by the insurgents of Iraq. The great majority of Iraqis don't want to be ruled or have their lives ruined by these monsters. But they must have a government that commands public loyalty and hope, and looks as if it can prevail.
For all the truly heartwarming effects of Sunday's elections, the political imperfections of that vote cannot be overlooked. But those imperfections can be overcome by a special body that drafts a constitution with powers, values and protections worth fighting and dying for.
Leslie H. Gelb, a former editor and columnist for The Times, is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
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