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U.S. support for the war in Iraq continues to decline (Photo: AP)
On the third anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion and the fall of Saddam Hussein's brutal regime, peace remains elusive. Sectarian fighting looks increasingly like civil war and politicians have failed to build a government out of the successful December elections. These factors have led to a growing pessimism among the American public (PDF), according to a new Pew Center poll.
Across the board, polls show a disapproval of the president and a waning support for the war (PollingReport.com). Even Bush's new National Security Strategy, which calls for renewed emphasis on democracy promotion, has garnered bipartisan criticism (NYT). In an effort to bolster support, the commander-in-chief is giving a series of speeches (Newsweek). In his anniversary remarks, the president argued the U.S. strategy is working despite escalating violence and former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's warning that civil war has already started (BBC). Experts say President Bush will be hard-pressed to reverse the downward trend of public approval, which as John Mueller writes in Foreign Affairs, is a predicament not unique to Iraq.
Bush has reasserted that by helping establish a stable, democratic Iraq, the United States will deny terrorists a safe haven. But so far, the war has had a "clearly negative" impact on U.S. foreign policy, says Richard Haass, CFR president and head of policy planning at the State Department at the outbreak of the war. Haass tells cfr.org's Bernard Gwertzman the war has weakened the United States both militarily and diplomatically in dealing with crises involving Iran and North Korea.
The Bush administration's handling of intelligence prior to the war also continues to generate debate. This declassified report by U.S. Joint Forces Command, published by Foreign Affairs in a web exclusive, indicates Saddam had finally decided to cooperate fully with international weapons inspectors but a long pattern of deceit meant no one believed him. Still, the consensus of a group of experts, journalists, and military specialists interviewed by cfr.org is that the war is not yet lost, but Washington needs to press ahead with initiatives ranging from police reform to economic reconstruction.
The most recent sectarian violence combined with the political stalemate, is causing deep concern. A series of attacks on predominantly Shiite areas of Baghdad has unleashed more fighting (AP) similar to the violence that followed the bombing of the Shiite Golden Mosque last month in Samarra. As many as 700 people have been killed in since the February 22 shrine bombing. Brookings' Kenneth Pollack, an expert on the region, says militias are even more destabilizing than the insurgency. Matthew Sherman, a former Interior Ministry adviser, tells cfr.org the number of commandos with sectarian militia ties has jumped from roughly 6,000 to around 10,000 over the past year.
In a sign of progress, Iraqi officials from the country's main political factions have formed a nineteen-member national security council (LAT) to set policies for a new government, described in this Background Q&A. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department's latest human rights report on Iraq warns that despite some political progress, civilian life is under "intense strain from the widespread violence."
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