home > by publication type > daily analysis > A Storm in a Teacup Over Taiwan
Email
| Prepared by: | Esther Pan |
|---|
Chen Shui-bian is provoking China with independence talk (Photo:AP)
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, a leading proponent of Taiwanese independence, is at it again. On February 27 he abolished the National Unification Council (CSMonitor), a largely symbolic body intended to prepare for eventual unification with China. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province that will eventually rejoin the mainland; Chen calls Taiwan an independent, sovereign country. The move to abolish the council brought a firestorm of criticism from both sides of the Taiwan Strait (BBC) and was immediately condemned by Beijing. Chinese President Hu Jintao called the move a "grave provocation" and a "dangerous step on the road toward Taiwan independence"
(Xinhua). Beijing has threatened to attack Taiwan with military force if it declares formal independence. This CFR Background Q&A examines the current China-Taiwan relationship.
Critics accuse Chen of making pro-independence moves to increase his dismal political standing at home; his approval ratings have fallen to around 20 percent. But Craig Meer, a Taipei-based journalist, says in the Asia Times that Chen's decision to abolish the unification council has exacerbated his political problems rather than helped them. And Jing Huang of the Brookings Institution says Chen has irrevocably damaged his own credibility, as well as the political future of his party, the DPP.
Washington is also integral to the conflict. After decades of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan, a recent Congressional Research Service report says the United States will be pushed by both China and Taiwan to define a clearer role for itself on cross-strait relations (PDF). (For many years, the United States has committed to helping Taiwan defend itself in the event of a military attack by China.) Some experts suggest that as China and the United States move closer on a range of issues, Washington could play the referee in the conflict, restraining both Chinese aggression and Taiwanese provocation to preserve the status quo. But in his book Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait, Richard Bush—director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution—writes that the U.S. role as mediator in the conflict is "severely restricted" by its relationships with both China and Taiwan, and says it is unclear whether either side would accept the United States in such a capacity.
Robert Ross writes in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs that the increasing irrelevance of the Taiwan independence movement has removed "the only plausible cause of war" between China and the United States. But Korea's Joong Ang Daily warns in an editorial that "once the balance of power across the strait breaks down, order in the Asian Pacific region will fall into chaos. That's why we cannot take our eyes off the Taiwan Strait."
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.