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March 2006
| Author: | Charles D. Ferguson, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow for Science and Technology |
|---|
Preventing Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism makes clear what is needed to reduce the possibility of nuclear terrorism. It identifies where efforts have fallen short in securing and eliminating nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials, and it offers realistic recommendations to plug these gaps in the U.S. and international response.
What is a CFR Academic Module?
Academic Modules—featuring teaching notes by the authors of CFR publications—are designed to assist educators in creating or supplementing a course syllabus. The modules are customized packages built around a primary CFR text, such as a book or report, and include teaching notes; additional readings; video, audio, and transcripts of CFR meetings; Foreign Affairs articles; and other online resources. Use of these modules is free of charge. They may be used in part or in their entirety.
March 2006
Council Special Report No. 11
The threat of a nuclear attack—especially a nuclear detonation—by terrorists has never been greater. The United States and the international community must do more to prevent terrorists from buying, stealing, or building nuclear weapons. This report identifies where efforts have fallen short in securing and eliminating nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials, and it offers realistic recommendations to plug these gaps in the U.S. and international response.
by Charles D. Ferguson
The Council on Foreign Relations’s Special Report on Preventing Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism was designed, in part, with collegiate teaching in mind, and it may also be useful in some advanced high school courses. These teaching notes offer some suggestions for using the special report in four types of courses:
This Council Special Report (CSR) argues that the threat of nuclear attack by terrorists has never been greater because of the increasing levels of violence committed by terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda that covet weapons of mass destruction. The likelihood of this attack has also increased because traditional deterrence—threatening assured destruction against a valued asset such as a national territory—does not work against these terrorist groups. Despite this growing threat, the United States and many other governments have yet to raise prevention of nuclear terrorism to a high priority. To launch a nuclear attack, terrorists must first acquire a nuclear bomb. They could do this in three ways: by stealing it, buying it, or building it. All three pathways pose significant constraints to terrorists, but one cannot discount any of these possible routes to catastrophic nuclear terrorism. Securing and eliminating vulnerable nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials offer the points of greatest leverage in preventing nuclear terrorism.
General Courses on International Relations and Security and Terrorism
The threat of nuclear terrorism underscores the perceived increased dangers of the post-9/11 world. While many terrorism experts believe that a new breed of terrorist that covets weapons of mass destruction has arisen over the past ten to fifteen years, others disagree and believe that the so-called “new terrorism” is more of a matter of degree rather than a different kind of terrorism. In fact, the vast majority of terrorist acts to this day involve conventional weapons. Still, a few terrorist groups have expressed strong interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.
Nuclear terrorism is a complex scientific and political issue. Students will have to understand the basic physics behind nuclear bombs. The CSR provides this essential background information. In weighing the various threats to national and international security, students (and government officials) have to consider carefully where to invest limited government resources. Experts agree that an act of nuclear terrorism is an extremely high consequence but very low probability event. Students could discuss how many and what type of resources governments should allocate to combat this threat compared to less consequential but more likely means of attack. Students could debate whether the threat of nuclear terrorism has been hyped and whether the reaction to it has shortchanged action on other international security threats. Conversely, students could consider why governments have not devoted more attention to the threat of nuclear terrorism.
Multiple layers of defenses can provide an increasingly effective way to dissuade terrorists from launching a nuclear attack. While the CSR focuses on defensive actions that secure and reduce nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials, students and instructors in these courses could consider how much governments should spend on these and other layers of defense. The CSR on page 9 provides a list of several references that examine the multiple layers of defense, including disrupting and destroying terrorist cells, blocking terrorists from the sources of nuclear weapons and weapons-usable materials, developing and deploying radiation detection equipment, and improving intelligence assessments of when and where terrorists will launch a nuclear attack.
Discussion Questions
1. Terrorists and Their Motivations and Constraints
2. Government Resources, Constraints, and Responses
Specialized Courses on Nonproliferation, Arms Control, or Threats from Weapons of Mass Destruction
An important question in this type of course is:
Other issues to debate and analyze are:
Students should not assume that these measures would always reduce the probability of nuclear terrorism. For instance, as weapons are dismantled, weapons-usable materials can become more vulnerable to theft and use by terrorists unless governments maintain tight controls over these materials.
The CSR offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral recommendations for the U.S. government. These recommendations can provide a starting point for further class discussion and debate:
Specialized Courses on Nuclear Technology and Security
Specialized courses will wrestle with issues as nonproliferation, arms control, and weapons of mass destruction. In addition, a course on nuclear technology can focus on the physics of nuclear weapons as well as the linkage between other nuclear technologies such as nuclear power plants, uranium enrichment plants, and plutonium reprocessing facilities and nuclear terrorism. It could also explore in depth what skills terrorists would need to make their own nuclear bombs and what governments can or cannot do to block terrorists from acquiring those skills and the materials needed to make nuclear weapons.
Updated April 4, 2006
The UN Security Council is debating how to restrict Iran's nuclear program. Western states seek a firm statement and the threat of eventual sanctions if Iran does not suspend its uranium enrichment work. But Russia and China oppose sanctions, leading to talk about economic penalties outside the United Nations' authority.
February 28, 2006
As the world struggles to find a formula for dealing with suspicious nuclear developments in Iran , Russian diplomats have been holding bilateral talks with Iranian officials on a proposal they say could defuse the crisis.
Updated: October 2, 2008
A proposed groundbreaking nuclear deal between the United States and India is raising questions and concern in both countries.
February 10, 2006
As diplomatic pressure intensifies on Iran over its nuclear program, new attention is being focused on Israel's nuclear capabilities and the challenges its nuclear program poses for peace in the Middle East.
March 2006
Task Force Report No. 57
This report asserts a U.S.-Russia “partnership” is the right long-term goal, but not a realistic prospect over the next few years. This report is also available in Russian.
This film was produced with support from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, with additional funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
March 13, 2006
Watch South Asia experts discuss President George W. Bush's March 2006 trip to India and the ramifications of the U.S.-India nuclear agreement.
September 19, 2005
Written by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and produced for the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
November / December 2005
February 23, 2006
Iran, emboldened by the situation in Iraq and soaring oil prices, and animated by a combination of insecurity and assertive nationalism, insists on its right to develop full nuclear fuel cycle capability, including the ability to enrich uranium. Two possible scenarios remain, however, for a negotiated compromise. The first, and unquestionably more attractive for the international community, is a "zero enrichment" option. The second is the "delayed limited enrichment" plan spelt out in this report.
January/February 2006
Securing sites that contain significant quantities of highly enriched uranium (HEU) is a critical step to reducing the threat of nuclear terrorism.
Winter 2005
Matthew Bunn argues in this editorial that presidential leadership is the key to accelerating progress on securing nuclear weapons and materials.
May 2005
Building on three previous annual reports, this new NTI-commissioned report evaluates current efforts and recommends new actions to more effectively prevent nuclear terrorism. It finds that while the United States and other countries laid important foundations for an accelerated effort to prevent nuclear terrorism in the last year, sustained presidential leadership will be needed to win the race to lock down the world's nuclear stockpiles before terrorists and thieves can get to them.
May 2004
This NTI-commissioned report grades efforts and recommends new actions to more effectively prevent nuclear terrorism. It finds that programs to reduce this danger are making progress, but there remains a potentially deadly gap between the urgency of the threat and the scope and pace of efforts to address it. The report includes a comprehensive action plan for accelerating the effort and debunks in detail a series of myths that have led policy-makers around the world to downplay the danger.
Spring 2004
Michael Levi argues that contrary to popular belief, with a little technological innovation, deterrence can become a useful strategy against terrorist use of nuclear weapons.
1996
Chapter from Kennedy School report on "Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy," republished by PBS.
March 28, 2006
Letter
March 24, 2006
Report
February 13, 2006
National Strategy
March 31, 2006
Nuclear terrorism and its prevention preoccupy the U.S. military, intelligence community, and diplomatic corps. But experts say the country should be doing more to lessen chances of an attack.
HBO New York Premiere: Last Best Chance
| Speakers: | Sam Nunn, Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nuclear Threat Initiative |
|---|---|
| Richard G. Lugar, Member, U.S. Senate (R-IN); Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee | |
| Presider: | Jeff Greenfield, Senior Analyst and Contributor, CNN |
6:00-7:00 PM Cocktail buffet
7:00-8:00 PM Screening
8:00-9:00 PM Discussion
9:00-9:30 PM Dessert reception
*This meeting will be on the record.
**This meeting is now waitlist only. To be added to the waiting list please call 212-434-9600.
Transcript: HBO New York Premiere: Last Best Chance [Rush transcript; Federal News Service, Inc.]
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Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
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