home > by publication type > daily analysis > Japan Also Rises
Email
| Prepared by: | Michael Moran |
|---|
Practicing self defense. (Photo: AP)
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." Mark Twain's famous quip is both true and indicative of how dangerous it is to rely on simple statistics when gauging complex topics. To wit: Japan's pacifist constitution includes a strict prohibition on the creation of a regular army, as well as spending more than 1 percent of GDP on the military. Yet 1 percent of Japan's GDP is enough to rank it fourth in world military spending, with only the United States, China, and France ahead on the list.
Japan's wary neighbors never put much faith in the 1 percent limitation. This week, reforms of the Japanese military's command structure take effect to enable joint operations (Yomiuri Shimbum) between air, land and sea forces. The impetus for the change was the botched 1995 effort to coordinate naval and ground rescue efforts after the Kobe earthquake. But this will, no doubt, be dismissed by some outsiders for whom Japan's military will always be synonymous with the abuses of the 1930s and 1940s. The complexities of the debate over Japan's military capabilities are outlined in this Background Q&A by Lee Hudson Teslik.
But does any of this constitute evidence of a remilitarizing Japan? The Japanese note their Self Defense Force (SDF) currently has a mere 240,000 personnel. Even acknowledging their highly capable navy, Japan's forces are small compared with the 2.25 million under arms in China, the one million-plus-strong North Korean military, or even the 660,000 South Koreans in uniform.
Japan's neighbors see the numbers in a different light, and understand that an economic superpower can quickly choose to diversify into military efforts. This year, China, South Korea, and the Philippines have all traded barbs with Japan over historical issues (CSMonitor) related to Japan's brutal conduct during World War II. Anger about glossed-over atrocities in Japanese primary school text books sparked anti-Japanese rioting last year in China, and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's decision to visit the controversial Yasukuni war shrine for a fifth year running (Bloomberg) led China to reaffirm a boycott on bilateral high-level contacts.
In fact, the rivalry between Japan and China, profiled here by the BBC, increasingly drives tension between the two countries, and a competition for scarce regional offshore oil resources plays its part (WashPost). Yet, with Sino-Japanese ties at their worst since the 1970s, the friction over history and oil platforms are merely symptoms of deeper frictions, as Masaru Tamamoto of the The Japan Institute of International Affairs explains in a recent article. "Some liken current Sino-Japanese relations to the Anglo-German rivalry prior to World War I," writes Kent Calder, an East Asia expert, in the current issue of Foreign Affairs.
Comparisons to one of history's most infamous arms races notwithstanding, others in the region appear more sanguine. The South Asia Analysis Group, an India-based think tank, sees a more assertive policy, citing Japan's decision to send warships and military support staff to aid U.S.-led forces in Iraq. The paper says Japan seems to be engaged in tentative "steps towards more assertive approaches in enhancing its military profile." But it also notes that this is a long way from the South East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere of the Japanese Empire. The Australian Journal of International Affairs is even less alarmist, noting Japanese "policy-makers have continued to hedge around commitments to the US through careful constitutional framing of [SDF] missions and capabilities, allowing it opt-out clauses in future conflicts."
For now, though, Beijing's foreign ministry spokesman says China is intent on isolating Japan (Xinhua) until their neighbor shows "sincerity and wisdom" in handling their mutual history. And, for good measure, China is outspending Japan on defense.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.