home > by publication type > daily analysis > Montenegro Quits Serbia
Email
| Prepared by: |
|---|
Montenegro was last independent in 1918 under King Nikola (Photo: AP)
Montenegrins turned out en masse to vote in Sunday's referendum on independence from Serbia. Those in favor of separation garnered just over the required 55 percent necessary to achieve independence (CNN). The vote is a political victory for the pro-independence prime minister, Milo Djukanovic, who had pledged to push for secession even with just a simple majority. The run up to the election is analyzed in this new CFR Background Q&A.
The secession of tiny Montenegro, often overlooked in a tumultuous neighborhood, could open a final phase in the crumbling of the former Yugoslavia. All that remained of the federation is a two-country union, officially named "Serbia and Montenegro," which encompasses Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian-dominated province that is also seeking national sovereignty. A number of experts now predict a Kosovar solution in the near future, though most do not believe Montenegro's elections will have much of an effect on that process. A December 2005 report by the International Crisis Group emphasizes that the results of Montenegro's referendum should have no bearing on Kosovo's campaign for independence.
The position of the European Union remains unclear. It was the EU, after all, that negotiated the 55 percent target for the referendum (EU Observer), when a simple majority would have almost guaranteed the vote's success. Some experts say the EU may have set the bar high because it didn't want to see the referendum pass (the rationale being that independence—or, at least, independence now—would create instability in the Balkans). But experts say it's more likely the EU set a high target to stave off the threat of boycott by Montenegro's large ethnic Serb minority. The United States, for its part, has remained more or less mum on the issue; this 2005 Special Report by CFR Senior Fellow William Nash argues for a more active approach.
Another question is whether an independent Montenegro stands a better chance of admittance into the EU. Many Montenegrins consider themselves handcuffed to a country which has burned its European bridges (Deutsche Welle) by failing to arrest and hand over a number of war criminals, including Ratko Mladic. Separatists argue that independence would "dramatically increase" Montenegro's chances of admittance (RFE/RL). As this analysis from England's Daily Telegraph points out, the recent spat over Mladic has almost certainly strengthened the hand of Montenegro's pro-separation forces.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
In Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President, experts from the Council on Foreign Relations and the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution propose a new, nonpartisan Middle East strategy drawing on the lessons of past failures to address both the short-term and long-term challenges to U.S. interests.
This report lays out a thoughtful agenda for U.S. policy toward the Democratic Republic of Congo, arguing that what happens there should matter to the United States--for humanitarian reasons as well as economic and strategic ones.
In this report, CFR Senior Fellow Michael A. Levi analyzes the potential use of deterrence in preventing terrorist groups from acquiring nuclear weapons and recommends a new approach to U.S. declaratory policy, as well as ways to improve U.S. capabilities to determine the sources of terrorist attacks.
Complete list of Council Special Reports.
This report argues that the United States must lead with domestic action on climate change and proposes a U.S. negotiating strategy for a global UN climate agreement that includes commitments from all major economies, while also promoting a less formal Partnership for Climate Cooperation that would focus the world's largest emitters on implementing aggressive emissions reductions.
This Task Force report examines changes in Latin America and in U.S. influence there, while taking account of the region's enduring importance to the United States. The Task Force offers an agenda for U.S. policy toward Latin America and identifies four critical areas that should provide the basis of a new U.S. approach.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR.
A selection of Foreign Affairs pieces by and about the preeminent political scientist of the last half century.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1-212-434-9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
To request permission to reuse Council materials, please email publications@cfr.org or fax +1.212.434.9859.
Please include the complete information of the requested work—author, title, sections/pages to be copied or reprinted, and number of copies to be made—along with a brief description of where and how you would like to reuse the work.
You may also request permission for Council material through Copyright Clearance Center. For more information, please click on the link below.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
Global Economy 