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| Author: | Lionel Beehner |
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June 28, 2006
Restoring order in Basra—Iraq's restive second city—ranks among the most serious security challenges facing Iraq's new government. The oil-rich yet politically fractious city in southern Iraq emerged as a flashpoint of violence after clashes between British troops and various Shiite militias erupted earlier this year. Smuggling and sabotage continue to plague Basra's oil industry, as the provincial and central government dispute the distribution of oil revenues. A state of emergency, imposed by the Iraq's prime minister earlier this month, has temporarily quieted the city, but tensions linger beneath the surface.
Largely because of oil, experts say. "Shiite militias are fighting over that crown in the jewel," says Peter Khalil, a Middle East analyst at the Eurasia Group. "The militias are involved in lots of smuggling, corruption, rackets, and extortion." Basra, until recently one of Iraq's safest cities, is important to the central government in Baghdad not only because the city's oil fields provide around 90 percent of Iraq's budgetary revenue but also because it is Iraq's major outlet to the Persian Gulf. "It is the lifeline to the Iraqi government," Khalil says. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki promised to crack down with "an iron fist" and imposed a state of emergency not only to quell the violence in Basra and rein in its militias but to reassert Baghdad's authority over a region itching for greater autonomy. The city's murder rate in May—eighty-five killings—was triple the number from January, according to the New York Times.
Because the city lacks meters, it's difficult to accurately gauge how much oil is lost to smugglers and saboteurs. Iraq's national-security adviser recently told the New York Times there is an estimated 6,000 bpd difference between the amount of oil produced and the amount exported. Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst at the Congressional Research Service, estimates at least 10 percent of the oil gets illegally intercepted and loaded onto trucks headed for Jordan or Syria. In addition to individuals tied to militias or the police, organized criminals are responsible for much of smuggling. "Oil, and the siphoning of it, is a large cash industry and organized criminal elements recognize that better than anyone else," Sherman says.
Iran has a strong presence in southern Iraq and is very closely tied to SCIRI, one of Iraq's major Shiite parties, as well as its military wing, the Badr Brigade. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, SCIRI's clerical leader, recently visited Tehran to enlist its help in quelling Basra's violence. Iran also supports Hakim's call for a semi-autonomous state in southern Iraq. Hundreds of Iranian pilgrims visit Basra on a daily basis, sometimes illegally. "It's hard to vet who are genuine pilgrims and who are Iranian intelligence officers," Khalil says. Local police have found Russian-made Katyusha rockets and antitank missiles, reportedly smuggled in from Iran. Meanwhile, not every Iraqi in Basra welcomes Iran's growing presence there. "Many Basra Shiites still hold a grudge against Iran for the latter's shelling of the city during the Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988," Juan Cole, a Middle East expert at the University of Michigan, writes in his blog. "Sadrist Iraqis in particular denounce the dominance of Persian Shiism over Iraqi Shiism."
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