home > by publication type > daily analysis > Somalia at the Brink
Email
| Prepared by: | Eben Kaplan |
|---|
An ICC militia member guards the former presidential palance in Mogadishu. (AP/Mohamed Sheikh Nor)
While much of the world's attention has been focused on violence in the Middle East in recent weeks, another troublesome conflict is churning away in Somalia (BBC). This summer, fighters loyal to a group of Islamic courts rolled into Mogadishu, routing the warlords who had served as power brokers in the capital since Somalia's last stable government collapsed in 1991. The emerging fundamentalist leadership in the violence-plagued African nation has raised U.S. fears (Newsweek) that Somalia could become a haven for terrorists much like Afghanistan was.
Aside from the Islamists, several other players—explained in a new Backgrounder—have a stake in the outcome of Somalia's power struggle. For instance, the Mogadishu warlords, calling themselves the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism, appear to have received funding from the United States (WashPost). Ethiopia has reportedly sent troops (VOA) to protect the feeble transitional government, which, because of the lack of security in the capital, is located in the city of Baidoa. Power and Interest News Report summarizes the situation by saying, "As of now, it is the [Islamic courts] versus Ethiopia, with everyone else on the sidelines."
Eritrea, a longtime rival of Ethiopia, certainly hopes to enter the fray. Eritrea is believed to be responsible for the arrival in Mogadishu of a cargo jet suspected of bringing arms to the Islamists (BBC). Terrorism analyst Douglas Farah writes in his blog that the mysterious jet is likely linked to the notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.
Somalia's internationally recognized transitional government has been struggling to stay together in recent weeks. On July 30, Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi survived a contentious no-confidence vote (Reuters), which included fistfights between members of parliament. More than two dozen ministers resigned (BBC) in recent weeks in protest of the government's unwillingness to reenter peace talks with the Islamists.
As the Islamist courts grow stronger, many are concerned about Somalia's ties to terrorism, which are explained in this Backgrounder. Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, the spiritual leader of the courts, who has been dubbed a terrorist by the U.S. government, tells Newsweek he and his followers are simply Muslims, not terrorists, though he goes on to liken Osama bin Laden to Nelson Mandela. Congressional Research Service analyst Ted Dagne told a House of Representatives subcommittee the danger for the United States "is being perceived by Somalis as anti-Islam" (PDF). James Madison University's J. Peter Pham likens the emergence of Somali courts to the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan (PDF). An International Crisis Group report says that while Somalia would seem fertile ground for militant Islam, Somalis have historically shown "little interest in jihadi Islamism." Then again, as Washington Post reporter Craig Timberg tells Foreign Policy, "Governments don't always reflect the will of their populations."
One element often overlooked or not understood by Western media is the importance of historically entrenched clan allegiances, outlined in this Stratfor report.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.