home > by publication type > daily analysis > Averting Civil War in Iraq
Email
| Prepared by: | Lionel Beehner |
|---|
Golden Mosque in Samarra after its February bombing. (AP/Khalid Mohammed)
Throughout much of Iraq's postwar period, Shiite restraint was largely what prevented the country from sliding into civil war. Despite an onslaught of increasingly destructive insurgent attacks by Sunni Arabs, most Shiite clerical and political leaders urged caution. They feared disrupting the democratic process because, from a demographic standpoint, it clearly favored Shiite parties. The February bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra, however, marked the turning point when Shiite militias responded with proportional force and violence became more sectarian. General John Abizaid, commander of U.S. Central Command, told the U.S. Congress August 3 that Iraq was teetering on the precipice of civil war (IHT). Civilian casualties now top one hundred per day.
But if Iraq enters the grips of civil war, what does that mean for U.S. policy? More U.S. troops could be sent in or forces could be scaled back, a move which might force Iraq's feuding ethnic groups to broker some form of peace. Or perhaps troops could be reassigned to danger zones like Baghdad, which some analysts have likened to a "whack-a-mole" strategy. CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot prefers deploying more troops, not fewer "if we are to have any hope of averting the worst American military defeat since Vietnam."
The nomenclature of the current conflict has vexed U.S. officials (Newsweek), who long referred to the enemy as "dead-enders" or "Saddamists," terms that suggest a fly-by nuisance that goes away with time and political progress within the Green Zone. Even the term "insurgency" implied a messy situation involving a Vietnam-like commitment. Insurgencies are not won on the battlefield, military experts say, and typically drag on for at least a decade. "The insurgents and the regime compete for the allegiance of a common pool of citizens, who could, in principle, take either side," wrote CFR Senior Fellow Stephen Biddle in Foreign Affairs.
Now Iraq is approaching, if not embroiled in, what Biddle would call a "communal civil war." Yet the trouble with this nomenclature, writes Chris Weigant of the Huffington Post blog, is "[i]f everyone starts calling Iraq a civil war, it will be proof that the U.S. has utterly failed in its mission to create a stable Iraqi democracy." It also muddles the mission, writes Harold Meyerson in a Washington Post op-ed. "[T]he role of American soldiers in an intra-Islamic conflict is impossible to plausibly articulate," he says. Lawrence Korb of the Center for American Progress is more succinct: "You can't win a civil war" (CSMonitor).
Senator John Warner (R-VA) has said he may press Congress to vote again for a resolution before authorizing U.S. troops to become entangled in an all-out civil war (LAT). Others, including former U.S. diplomat Peter Galbraith, favor dividing Iraq into Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish regions. "There is no good solution to the mess in Iraq," he wrote recently in the International Herald Tribune. "The country has broken up. The United States cannot put it back together again and cannot stop the civil war."
This International Crisis Group offers some prescriptions for resolving the civil conflict, while Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute urges the United States to deploy the right kinds of forces, including "linguists, intelligence and civil affairs specialists, and military police." All experts emphasize the need to secure Baghdad, which has emerged as the least secure quarter in Iraq. Yet as the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Anthony H. Cordesman points out, "Securing Baghdad won't win, but losing Baghdad will lose."
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.