home > by publication type > daily analysis > On the Trail of Hugo Chavez
Email
| Prepared by: | Stephanie Hanson |
|---|
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez attends miltary service on August 11, 2006. (AP/Gregorio Marrero)
Hugo Chavez is better known for his hyperbolic statements—he calls President Bush "Mr. Danger" and labels Israel's campaign in Lebanon a "new Holocaust" (Miami Herald)—than his diplomacy. But a trip to China this week (Australian), preceded by a recent world tour (SFChron) that included visits to Belarus, Russia, and Iran, suggests the Venezuelan president's foreign policy ambitions may be just as outsized as his rhetoric.
Among the many reasons for his recent globe-trotting—lobbying for a temporary seat on the UN Security Council (BosGlobe), arms purchases, and strengthening relationships with anti-U.S. leaders of several countries at odds with Washington—one dominated: energy deals. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin appeared cool to requests to fund a South American oil pipeline, but in Iran, calls for oil investment in Venezuela's Orinoco region fell on more responsive ears. On July 30, Iran's state-owned oil company agreed to invest some $4 billion in two Venezuelan oil fields (WSJ). In Beijing this week, Chavez hopes to sign agreements for China to build tankers to haul oil to Asia and rigs to help Venezuela upgrade their oil infrastructure (AP).
Chavez's growing assertiveness, in Latin America and beyond, is fueled by oil riches, generously dispensed to friends and neighbors. But this largesse is dependent on the country he loves to hate: Roughly half of Venezuelan oil exports go to the United States. This new Backgrounder examines Chavez's foreign policy goals and the sustainability of his petrodiplomacy.
Though U.S. officials are watching Chavez's moves carefully, experts say they are divided on how seriously to take his growing power. Some analysts focus on his strengthened relationship with Iran (NYT), while others are concerned about the possibility he will cut off oil to the United States. Richard Lugar (R-IN), chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, acknowledged it is unlikely Venezuela will cease its supply of oil to the United States, but he still urged the government to plan for a disruption (FT). The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates (PDF) such a boycott could raise oil prices by eleven dollars per barrel.
Stephen Johnson of the Heritage Foundation says Chavez has long been underestimated, and while he may not be a threat, he is certainly a "major irritant." But CFR Senior Fellow Julia E. Sweig writes that the prospect of Chavez supplanting Cuba's Fidel Castro "as the new Latin threat of the post-Cold War world is vastly overblown—and the notion that he could drive the rest of the region toward the left is even more so" (WashPost). Michael Shifter, vice president of the Inter-American dialogue, writes in Foreign Affairs that two caricatures of Chavez—the populist hero and the power-hungry authoritarian—have prevented the United States from mounting an effective strategy to combat Latin America's social inequalities and unrest.
Mexican journalist Alma Guillermoprieto examines Chavez's military background and flamboyant personality in the New York Review of Books. In a second article, she visits the social welfare programs created by Chavez and then talks to the political opposition (NYReview). The opposition has canceled a primary scheduled for August 13, choosing instead to unite behind one candidate, Manuel Rosales, who will challenge Chavez in December's presidential election (AP).
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.