home > by publication type > op-eds > Some ideas on how to disarm Hizbullah
Email
| Authors: | Steven Simon, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies Jonathan Stevenson |
|---|
August 15, 2006
The Daily Star
Israel’s military response to Hizbullah’s provocations, replete with images of humanitarian catastrophe and pregnant with the risk of wider war, has now ensured that major powers cannot evade another opportunity to repair Lebanon’s broken government.
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, unanimously approved last Friday night, moves in the right direction. The resolution imposed a cease-fire, which began on Monday, and facilitates the voluntary withdrawal of Israeli troops from South Lebanon by authorizing a 15,000-strong multinational force to deploy in the area alongside a Lebanese Army contingent of equal size. The multinational force will have robust rules of engagement, by their terms sufficient to enforce peace, and will be responsible for policing transport routes to ensure that Iran and Syria do not rearm Hizbullah. The major powers cannot count on the multinational force to guarantee Israeli quiescence, and the resolution does not establish a clear framework for political negotiation. To stabilize Lebanon, large-scale diplomatic mobilization is required, and key world and regional powers must take the initiative on their own.
The multinational force is not likely to be a reliable deterrent. In 1982-84, a force of roughly 5,000 troops (including 1,800 US Marines) was unable to prevent aggression between Lebanese militias, facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli and Syrian forces, and help restore a stable Lebanese government. Hizbullah suicide truck bombs killing 241 US Marines and 58 French soldiers in October 1983 prompted the withdrawal, within four months, of all foreign forces. Lebanon was left an enfeebled geopolitical pawn of Syria and Israel. At that time, military intervention had to be an order of magnitude larger to be effective. The conditions that imposed that requirement have not significantly changed: The Lebanese armed forces are still weak, Hizbullah is still armed, and Israel remains determined to protect its northern flank.
Steven Simon is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Jonathan Stevenson is a professor of strategic studies at the US Naval War College.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.