home > by publication type > daily analysis > Iran Showdown Enters Next Phase
Email
| Prepared by: | Lionel Beehner |
|---|
Ahmadinejad at inauguration ceremony of heavy-water production plant at Arak. (AP/Arash Khamoushi)
The Americans and Europeans want sanctions. Beijing and Moscow prefer further diplomacy. Where do Security Council negotiations over Iran's nuclear program go from here?
The August 31 deadline, imposed by the veto-wielding "Big Five" plus Germany, came and went without any agreement reached (CNN). The Iranians pledged their interest in "serious negotiations," but continued enriching small amounts of uranium on the side, undeterred by the threat of sanctions or international isolation. The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found at an Iranian facility new traces of highly enriched uranium which, contrary to Iranian claims, did not come from contaminated equipment originating in Pakistan. The particles found were not bomb-grade, and the IAEA claims it "has not uncovered any concrete proof that Iran's nuclear program is of a military nature."
That has not assuaged fears in Western capitals that Iran wants to build a bomb. "There must be consequences for Iran's defiance," pledged President Bush (NYT). But the UN Security Council disagrees over what those consequences should be. European and American officials are expected to meet in Berlin next week to plan a course of action. One proposal includes imposing political and economic sanctions outside the rubric of the Security Council. Another European proposal calls for softer sanctions, such as blocking Iranian access to international banks or imposing travel bans against top Iranian officials. Russian and Chinese officials have been largely mum, only to say they favor "patience" and further "dialogue." Beijing and Moscow fear punitive actions may jeopardize their economic and energy interests with Iran (RFE/RL).
But would sanctions, however severe, even work? "A country capable of producing its own nuclear fuel can also overcome sanctions," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told reporters. Plus, "as Washington learned with India and Pakistan in the 1980s and 1990s, sanctions only increase the costs of going nuclear," writes Scott Sagan in Foreign Affairs, "[but] they do not reduce the ability of a determined government to get the bomb." Still, sweeping sanctions would adversely affect Iran's struggling and heavily subsidized economy, as this Backgrounder explains. George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment, in an interview with CFR.org's Bernard Gwertzman, suggests that sanctions can only be effective if the Russians are onboard and provided they include bans against arms sales (which would primarily affect Moscow).
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.