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| Prepared by: | Robert McMahon, Deputy Editor |
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September 27, 2006
Foreign policy matters are expected to play a significant role in the U.S. midterm elections on November 7. Political experts anticipate a gain by Democrats in the House of Representatives, with Democrats possibly regaining control of the House for the first time in twelve years. They cite dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and overall U.S. policy in prosecuting the “war on terror,” which has drawn new attention with the release this week of a U.S. intelligence report indicating the administration’s campaign in Iraq has inflamed jihadists.
In the past, majority Republicans and President George W. Bush have benefited whenever they emphasized security issues and the country’s avoidance of a major terror attack since September 11, 2001. Republican congressional leaders in the preelection session this autumn have focused on national security initiatives to try to boost their sagging polling numbers.
Public opinion surveys show Americans this year have more concern than usual about foreign policy matters. A poll taken by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press in early September shows more than twice as many Americans are preoccupied with foreign or security issues than they are with economic ones, and a number of polls show about 60 percent of the public dissatisfied with various aspects of the war in Iraq. Polls show low approval ratings for both parties in Congress but with President Bush’s especially high negatives on the Iraq war, Republican candidates in some areas are distancing themselves from Bush on that war and on immigration, where he has embraced a plan that critics associate with amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Republicans, seizing on their traditionally favorable ratings for national security, adopted a “security September” strategy for the preelection congressional session. In the House, Republicans have advanced legislation related to fencing along the Mexican border, military tribunals, and electronic surveillance of terrorist suspects. In addition to considering similar legislation, the Senate has passed measures dealing with port security and is looking at a range of other homeland security initiatives. Norman J. Ornstein, an expert on U.S. politics and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute says this election will demonstrate “a general sense of distemper or unhappiness about what direction the country is going in” or affirm what Republicans are hoping, “that the Democrats are really bad and weak [and] this larger sense that you just can’t trust these guys in power.”
Nancy E. Roman, CFR vice president and director of the Washington office says most midterm elections are dominated by citizens’ concerns over issues like jobs and education. “Now people are going to their town hall [meetings] and wondering, ‘What are you going to do about Iraq and what are you going to do about Iran?’” she says.
Political experts in late September anticipated a solid Democratic showing, possibly winning the fifteen seats necessary to gain control of the House. But they say redistricting by both political parties over the years, which has made a number of congressional districts noncompetitive, has made this a more difficult task than in previous midterm elections. Control of the Senate, where Democrats must win six seats, is seen as less likely. “There’s a very strong chance they can win one house,” says Ornstein. All 435 House seats and thirty-four of the one hundred Senate seats are to be contested on November 7.
Experts like CFR’s Roman cite two foreign policy matters in particular that should bring voters to the polls—Iraq and immigration. The following is a list of the issues that have attracted congressional attention just ahead of the elections:
Democrats have signaled that if they reached a majority in one or both chambers, and thus gain chairmanship of defense and other committees, they would mount a campaign looking at oversight of executive branch activities in the past few years. In particular, they say they would examine the administration’s use of prewar intelligence and issues such as the Coalition Provisional Authority’s handling of funding and reconstruction in Iraq. “No question we’re going to get much more aggressive investigations and face-offs with the president,” in the event of Democrats gaining control, says Ornstein. In a leadership role the Democrats could also raise new questions about the administration’s free trade agenda, says Roman, but she sees little substantive change in foreign policy legislation with a Democratic-controlled Congress. That is in part because of the executive branch’s dominance on foreign policy issues as well as the tough choices facing either party on cases like Iraq. “I predict high partisanship,” says Roman, “but the policy outcomes will not be dramatically different no matter who’s in charge, not because the parties are working together but because they just don’t have a lot of room to maneuver on these issues.”
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