home > by publication type > daily analysis > Brinksmanship in Lebanon
Email
| Prepared by: | Eben Kaplan |
|---|
The assassination of Pierre Gemayal threatens to push Lebanon’s political crisis over the brink. (AP/Ben Curtis)
“Some civil wars never really end” observes Niall Ferguson in the Los Angeles Times, touching on fears that Lebanon is poised for a new cycle of violence. Beirut’s fragile political situation suffered a grave blow last week with the assassination (McClatchy) of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel on the outskirts of Beirut. Gemayel, a prominent Christian and outspoken critic of Syria, was gunned down at a time when the Shiite Hezbollah movement is trying to gain greater political influence. As a result, Lebanon’s government is left teetering at the brink of collapse (NYT), and possibly renewed violence.
Earlier this month, six ministers quit their posts in support of Hezbollah’s bid for greater cabinet-level representation. Under Lebanese law, if eight ministers leave the cabinet loses its right to govern. Gemayel’s murder leaves the nation’s government dangling by a thread. That thread came perilously close to giving way last Tuesday: Hours before Gemayel’s death the office of Lebanon’s minister for parliamentary affairs, Michael Pharaon, was sprayed with bullets (National Review Online).
Most Lebanese suspect Syrian involvement (Asia Times). Daily Star editor Michael Young tells CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman that “Syrians and their allies in Lebanon were responsible,” for a string of assassinations in Lebanon over the last two years. Syria is already under investigation by the United Nations for the assassination of former-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri last year. Hours after Gemayel was gunned down, the UN Security Council voted to establish a special tribunal to try those responsible for Hariri’s death. Days later, Lebanon’s remaining cabinet ministers voted to approve the tribunal (al-Jazeera). Hezbollah leaders have announced peaceful street demonstrations to protest the government, but TIME reports the group appears to be rapidly rearming.
In a new podcast, CFR Mideast expert Steven A. Cook says the hit on Gemayel marks a reemergence of Syrian influence in Lebanon and could provide Hezbollah with a chance to wield greater power. Daily Star editor Rami Khouri tells NPR’s All Things Considered that Gemayel’s killing takes place in the context of a larger struggle between Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah on one side and the Lebanese government, the United States, and UN investigators on the other.
Though world leaders swiftly condemned the attack, a diplomatic solution to the turmoil in Lebanon, and the broader region as a whole, requires more than tough talk. The Financial Times says that despite this latest setback, Gemayel’s death should not derail the growing momentum in Washington and London for direct dialogue with Syria and Iran. Yet the Washington Times suggests such diplomacy is a lost cause.
Writing in the National Interest, CFR Senior Fellow Steven Simon and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Daniel L. Byman suggest there are no good options for the United States in Lebanon and the Middle East is increasingly becoming a “no-win zone." CFR President Richard N. Haass warns in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs of a new Middle East in which the United States plays a less influential role and Iran’s profile rises.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.